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Labour veteran is said to relish role that requires careful negotiation of Trump and impending G20 leadership

Extraordinarily, given the importance of geopolitics, the office of foreign secretary has sometimes appeared a consolation prize in British politics, perhaps reflecting the transfer of responsibility to Downing Street or the Cabinet Office.

That is not how Ed Miliband views the job. His allies say suggestions that he nurses resentment after he was deprived of the chance to be chancellor misunderstand his grasp of the policy challenges ahead. “Ed has an immense appetite to get things done and is relishing being in this job,” one says. “Ed will be a policy-driven foreign secretary.”

Today’s Report

1. Overview

2. White House News

3. Truth Social Posts

4. Government Department News

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

6. AI & Tech Company News

7. Congressional Watch

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

1. Overview

President Trump issued a proclamation establishing a four-year safeguard measure on quartz surface product imports to assist the domestic industry, with tariffs beginning August 15, 2026. Additionally, the President hosted a televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David to highlight his administration’s focus on national strength, security, and economic prosperity, featuring updates from various department heads. Furthermore, the President is calling on the Senate to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, describing him as a “STAR” and a crucial “fighter” for the administration’s agenda.

On Truth Social, President Trump celebrated a federal appeals court ruling that upheld his administration’s mail-in voting restrictions. He also criticized Indiana State Senate leader Rodric Bray, calling him a “FOOL” and blaming him for election losses, while reiterating his support for a fund to compensate “victims of government abuse” from the Biden era. Regarding international affairs, Trump warned that the migration situation in Spain serves as a cautionary example for the United States, concluding with a call for citizens to “VOTE REPUBLICAN.”

Governor Gavin Newsom announced “Cal-Secure 2.0,” a new cybersecurity strategy aimed at protecting state infrastructure from AI-enabled threats. He also mobilized emergency resources across California to address extreme heat and elevated wildfire risks, deploying specialized fire crews and AI-enhanced detection technology. Additionally, Newsom announced that the state minimum wage will increase to $17.40 per hour on January 1, 2027, using the announcement to criticize federal leaders for having “blocked efforts to raise the federal minimum wage.” Senator Jon Ossoff launched a formal inquiry into Apple and Google regarding app store age ratings, expressing concern that self-rating systems fail to protect minors from “online predators and harmful content.”

OpenAI announced a “full-stack approach” to AI development intended to make advanced models more accessible and cost-effective across various sectors. The company also detailed its efforts to align with European regulatory standards as the EU AI Act progresses toward implementation. Additionally, OpenAI reported the successful implementation of its enterprise platform at the Dutch firm Univé and confirmed that it recently disrupted a Cambodia-based criminal network that was using its models for romance scams and fraudulent investment schemes.

The Senate engaged in floor business regarding nominations and several legislative resolutions on July 30. The body passed a resolution authorizing the en bloc consideration of nominations in a 50-47 vote but failed to proceed on a measure regarding child care funding flexibility. Senators also failed to discharge a resolution calling for the removal of U.S. forces from hostilities against Iran and initiated procedures to extend trade preferences for African nations. Various committees, including the Senate Finance and Commerce committees, held hearings and advanced legislation related to tax assistance and artificial intelligence infrastructure.

Heightened congressional scrutiny of app store transparency and safety protocols introduces significant bearish pressure on the technology sector, as potential mandates for third-party auditing threaten to disrupt established operational models and inflate legal overhead. Simultaneously, the implementation of new tariff-rate quotas aims to bolster domestic industrial production, yet these protectionist measures drive cost-push inflation within the construction industry by limiting access to affordable components. Furthermore, the escalation of regional minimum wages imposes margin compression on service-oriented firms, particularly as fragmented compliance requirements create what critics describe as a “widening gap” that complicates interstate business scaling. These policy shifts collectively force a recalibration of capital allocation as firms navigate the friction between shifting regulatory burdens and rising input costs.

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2. White House News

To Facilitate Positive Adjustment to Competition from Imports of Quartz Surface Products

Following an ITC investigation finding that increased quartz surface product (QSP) imports are a “substantial cause of serious injury to the domestic industry,” President Trump has proclaimed a four-year safeguard measure. Starting August 15, 2026, a tariff-rate quota will apply to QSP imports to facilitate domestic industry adjustment. Many trading partners, including Canada, Mexico, Australia, and various free-trade agreement participants, are excluded from this measure. The President authorized the U.S. Trade Representative to manage potential surges, circumvention, or negotiations regarding these import restrictions.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/to-facilitate-positive-adjustment-to-competition-from-imports-of-quartz-surface-products/

President Trump Hosts Historic Cabinet Meeting at Camp David

President Trump convened the first televised Cabinet meeting at Camp David to highlight his Administration’s efforts in restoring “American strength, security, prosperity, and common sense.” Cabinet members detailed various initiatives, including Vice President JD Vance’s anti-fraud campaign, Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s focus on sovereignty, and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth’s push to rebuild a “lethal, merit-based military.” Additionally, Secretary Scott Bessent touted economic gains, while Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. announced that “TrumpRx is already delivering huge savings” toward achieving the world’s lowest drug prices.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/president-trump-hosts-historic-cabinet-meeting-at-camp-david/

ICYMI: Confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General

President Trump is urging the U.S. Senate to confirm Todd Blanche as Attorney General, stating, “Todd Blanche is a STAR, and everyone knows it!” A broad coalition of law enforcement agencies, state attorneys general, and legal officials supports his confirmation, citing his record as Acting Attorney General, integrity, and commitment to the rule of law. Supporters describe him as a “fighter” essential to the administration’s agenda, while critics are characterized by some supporters as engaging in “juvenile political theater” or “partisan tantrums.”

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/icymi-confirm-todd-blanche-as-attorney-general/

3. Truth Social Posts

President Trump celebrated a federal appeals court ruling that rejected a challenge to his administration’s mail-in voting restrictions. Regarding domestic political personnel, he criticized Indiana State Senate leader Rodric Bray, calling him a “FOOL” and accusing him of causing election losses, while asserting that Bray would not have won reelection; he further signaled that he would face opposition at the polls. Additionally, Trump reiterated his support for compensating individuals he characterizes as “victims of government abuse” during the Biden administration, stating he has waived any personal benefit from such a fund. In the same post, he urged that Todd Blanche “should be immediately approved as U.S. Attorney General” and criticized Senator John Cornyn for changing his stance on the issue following an electoral defeat.

Turning to international concerns, Trump warned that the “tens of thousands of Illegal Immigrants invading” Spain mirrors the situation experienced during the Biden administration, cautioning that if Democrats regained power, the United States would face a similar, exacerbated fate. He concluded his remarks by urging citizens to “VOTE REPUBLICAN, AND BE PROUD OF THE U.S.A.”

Finally, Trump highlighted a Trafalgar Group tracking poll regarding the 2026 South Carolina special election for the United States Senate, which showed Darlene Graham leading the field of Republican candidates.

Reference: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

4. Government Department News

No relevant government department updates found for this date.

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Gavin Newsom (gov.ca.gov)

California launches next phase of state cybersecurity plan as AI changes threat landscape

Governor Newsom announced “Cal-Secure 2.0,” an updated cybersecurity strategy designed to protect state government systems from increasingly sophisticated threats, including AI-enabled cyberattacks. The roadmap prioritizes building a skilled cybersecurity workforce, improving cross-agency coordination, and modernizing technology through increased security investments. The strategy grants state agencies the flexibility to address specific operational risks while adhering to a unified statewide framework. This initiative expands upon California’s 2021 strategy to ensure the continued reliability of public services and data privacy.

California se moviliza para proteger a las comunidades mientras el calor del verano afecta al oeste del país

Governor Newsom announced the mobilization of emergency resources to combat extreme heat and elevated wildfire risks across California. State agencies are coordinating with local officials to deploy fire engines, helicopters, and hand crews to high-risk counties, including Los Angeles and San Bernardino. The state is operating cooling centers and utilizing AI-enhanced detection technology to manage potential incidents. The Governor stated, “California sabe cómo prepararse para el calor, y les pedimos a todos que pongan de su parte para mantenerse seguros,” while emphasizing the increasing climate-driven risks.

California mobilizes to protect communities as summer heat builds across the West

Governor Newsom has mobilized state resources to address extreme heat and heightened wildfire risks, prepositioning fire crews, aircraft, and equipment in several high-risk counties through August 3. The state is operating cooling centers and utilizing AI-guided wildfire detection tools. Despite providing mutual aid to other states, California maintains local readiness, with CAL FIRE and the California National Guard actively engaged. The Governor remarked, “Extreme heat is a serious public health risk, especially for our seniors, young children, and outdoor workers, and it also increases the risk of wildfires.”

Governor Newsom announces California will raise statewide minimum wage

Governor Newsom announced that California’s minimum wage will rise to $17.40 per hour on January 1, 2027. This annual adjustment, mandated by state law to keep pace with inflation, results in a rate nearly two-and-a-half times higher than the federal minimum wage. Criticizing federal leadership, the Governor stated, “For years, President Trump and Republicans have blocked efforts to raise the federal minimum wage while handing tax breaks to billionaires and big corporations.” The administration highlighted this increase as part of an agenda to support working families and economic growth.

Jon Ossoff (ossoff.senate.gov)

Sen. Ossoff Launches Inquiry into App Store Age Ratings to Help Protect Children Online

Senator Jon Ossoff has initiated inquiries with Apple and Google regarding their app store age rating systems. Citing reports that developers often self-rate apps with minimal oversight, Ossoff warned that inaccurate ratings can expose minors to online predators and harmful content. He is urging the companies to enhance default protections for children and increase transparency regarding their enforcement metrics. This effort follows previous bipartisan legislative work by Ossoff to strengthen online safety, combat child trafficking, and restrict the use of children’s data for advertising.

6. AI & Tech Company News

OpenAI (openai.com)

Advancing responsible AI across Europe

OpenAI details its efforts to align with European AI governance through established practices in safety, security, transparency, and data provenance. The company intends to continue these initiatives as the EU AI Act progresses toward implementation, ensuring that their systems remain compliant with regional regulatory standards.

Building abundant intelligence

OpenAI outlines a “full-stack approach” to AI development aimed at creating models that are increasingly capable, accessible, and cost-effective. The strategy focuses on broadening the practical utility of artificial intelligence, ensuring that advanced technological capabilities become widely available to support diverse user needs and operational efficiencies across various sectors.

Univé builds an AI-ready workforce

Dutch insurance firm Univé successfully implemented ChatGPT Enterprise to enhance its operational workflow. By fostering employee-led innovation and integrating robust governance frameworks, the company transitioned to an AI-ready workforce, enabling staff to leverage advanced language models for large-scale organizational transformation and productivity gains.

Disrupting a Criminal Scam Operation

OpenAI identified and disabled accounts associated with a Cambodia-based criminal network that utilized ChatGPT to facilitate deceptive activities. The operation employed AI to support various illicit schemes, including fraudulent investment solicitations, online romance scams, gambling manipulation, and the impersonation of individuals. OpenAI continues to monitor and restrict the misuse of its platform for such malicious purposes.

7. Congressional Watch

Covers the 2026-07-30 session — the Congressional Record is published with a one-day delay.

Senate

The Senate conducted floor business to process nominations and consider various resolutions. Senators also voted on procedural motions related to child care policy and military authorization, while initiating the process to extend trade preferences under the African Growth and Opportunity Act.

• S. Res. 817 — Authorizes the en bloc consideration of certain nominations in Executive Session [Passed 50-47 (Vote No. 217)]

• S.J. Res. 199 — Disapproval of the Department of Health and Human Services rule on child care funding flexibility [Failed to proceed 47-52 (Vote No. 215)]

• S.J. Res. 181 — Directs the removal of U.S. Armed Forces from hostilities in or against Iran [Failed to discharge 49-50 (Vote No. 216)]

• H.R. 6500 — Extends duty-free import treatment and customs user fees for African nations [Cloture motion entered]

House of Representatives

The House held a brief pro forma session on July 30, 2026. No legislative business or committee hearings were conducted during this time.

• No significant legislative actions were taken on the floor.

Committee Highlights

• Senate - Commerce, Science, and Transportation — Examined the role of intelligent networks in powering artificial intelligence

• Senate - Finance — Ordered the Taxpayer Assistance and Service Act to be reported

• Senate - Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions — Advanced multiple education and health-related bills and nominations

• Senate - Foreign Relations — Conducted a hearing on nominations for the U.S. Agency for Global Media, the IMF, and an ambassadorship

• Joint - Commission on Security and Cooperation in Europe — Received a briefing on Russian influence and engagement in Africa

Coming Up

The Senate will meet on Monday, August 3, 2026, at 3 p.m. The House will meet on Monday, August 3, 2026, at 4 p.m. for a pro forma session.

Reference: Congressional Record Archive

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Impact on Market

Based on today’s policy developments, our analysis identifies the following market impact themes:

THEME 1. REGULATORY PRESSURE ON DIGITAL PLATFORMS

Congressional scrutiny of app stores marks a transition toward stricter operational oversight for technology firms. Lawmakers are focusing on transparency and child safety, mechanisms that could force fundamental changes to how platforms manage content and developer guidelines. Bearish risks include increased legal costs and potential mandates for third-party auditing, which could disrupt current business models.

THEME 2. PROTECTIONIST TRADE POLICIES AND MARGINS

New tariff-rate quotas on industrial components demonstrate the administration’s focus on shielding domestic production from import competition. While this benefits domestic manufacturers, it inevitably creates cost-push inflation for the residential and commercial construction sectors. Opposition concerns highlight that these barriers may simply result in higher prices for end-consumers without solving underlying industrial productivity deficits.

THEME 3. LABOR COST ESCALATION IN CONSUMER SECTORS

The rise in California’s minimum wage forces a regional recalibration of labor expense structures for service-oriented firms. Higher personnel costs threaten to compress operating margins unless firms can successfully pass costs to consumers in a tightening discretionary spending environment. Critics worry this widening gap between state and federal wage standards creates fragmented compliance regimes that hinder interstate business growth.

Policy Impact Heatmap with Market Direction

Each cell shows an estimated impact score on a fixed scale of -10 to +10, reflecting how today’s policy developments may affect each market sector. Positive scores (green, ▲) suggest bullish impact; negative scores (red, ▼) suggest bearish pressure. Rows and columns are sorted by impact strength, and sectors and policy events with no meaningful impact are omitted. The heatmap, the analysis below, and the Impact on Market themes above are produced from a single unified analysis: the heatmap visualizes the magnitudes, while the text explains the causal reasoning behind them.

Policy-driven supply chain interventions and labor cost escalations are currently the primary drivers of market volatility. The imposition of quartz surface tariffs shifts competitive advantages toward domestic manufacturers, though downstream retailers face elevated cost pressures. Simultaneously, the escalation of regulatory scrutiny toward app stores creates significant compliance risk for large platforms. By questioning the efficacy of existing age-rating systems, legislators are increasing the likelihood of stringent oversight that could necessitate costly modifications to digital distribution architectures.

Separately, labor-intensive sectors in California face margin compression as the mandated minimum wage increase signals continued wage inflation. This state-level policy diverges from the federal trajectory, increasing operational complexity for national entities. Meanwhile, the failure of the Senate to force an withdrawal from Iranian hostilities maintains the existing geopolitical risk premium, providing structural support for the defense sector while keeping energy markets sensitive to regional instability. While proponents view these measures as necessary for safety or industry protection, critics argue such interventions represent “market interference” that adds friction to corporate operations and elevates consumer prices.

Donald Trump retreats further from commitment to let Ukraine manufacture its own Patriot missiles. What we know on day 1,620

Kyiv was once again under attack by ballistic missiles early on Saturday with at least 10 people killed, according to Reuters. “Fires and destruction occurred in five districts of the capital,” the state emergency service posted. Twenty-two people were reportedly also injured in the attack. It came as Donald Trump retreated further from a promise to let Ukraine manufacture its own Patriot air defence interceptors, which it desperately needs to shoot down Russian missiles. More than a ‌dozen explosions reverberated through Kyiv, and residents were warned to stay in shelters.

In Kyiv’s Darnytsky district, the attacks damaged multiple buildings and vehicles, with authorities reporting seven people killed and 14 wounded in the area. Two people were killed and eight others were wounded in Solomiansky district, where strikes damaged a five-storey residential building. “Everything was smashed, the windows, everything,” 75-year-old resident Kateryna Kravchenko told AFP of her apartment. “I can barely stand. I don’t know how I’m going to get through all this.” The emergency service said on Saturday morning that 105 people in Kyiv had been rescued from impacted areas.

Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Friday urged Trump and other US officials to help Ukraine gain permission from Elon Musk to use satellite internet service Starlink for guiding strikes inside Russia. Zelenskyy made the request directly to Trump during an Oval Office meeting this week, according to one person familiar with the matter. He also reportedly told lawmakers later on Capitol Hill that he wanted Starlink’s help. Trump did not commit to Zelenskyy’s request. Musk allows Starlink use within Ukraine, including Russian-occupied areas, but restricts it inside Russia.

During a cabinet meeting at Camp David, Trump told reporters that handing over the underlying Patriot technology was “a hard thing” to do. Ukraine’s Zelensky had met Trump earlier this week and said Trump had agreed to license the production of Patriot missiles to Ukraine. Asked whether he was ready to grant Kyiv a licence to build Patriots domestically – something he had suggested at a Nato summit in Turkey just this month – Trump said: “We have not agreed to that. We’re talking about it, but it’s a hard thing to give away that kind of technology.” Giving away the weapons carried its own risks, he added: “People that you give that technology [to], they can some day turn on you. You know that is possible.”

Several thousand Ukrainians rallied in central Kyiv on Friday, angry about Zelenskyy’s decision to ⁠oust the defence minister, Mykhailo Fedorov. Fedorov is ​widely credited with driving military innovation during Ukraine’s war with Russia. But having taken charge of the wartime ministry in January, he was dismissed in a surprise government reshuffle ⁠in mid-July. Since then, Ukrainians have been gathering next to the presidential office, pushing for Fedorov to be reinstated as he refused to accept another government post.

Russia’s main grain lobby group warned on Friday that Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian ships and ports could shut down grain exports via the Black Sea, pushing up ⁠prices and causing hunger in ⁠Africa and the Middle East. Russia, the ​world’s largest wheat exporter, and Ukraine, also a large agricultural exporter, have been attacking each other’s facilities and vessels in the Black Sea area in recent weeks, driving wheat prices higher. The disruption to shipping in the Black Sea ⁠caused by Ukrainian attacks “poses a direct threat to global food security”, Russia’s Union of Grain Exporters and Producers told Reuters.

Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian online retailer Wildberries amount to “acts ⁠of terrorism” against civilians, affecting millions of people in Russia and other countries, the company’s founder ⁠and CEO, Tatyana ⁠Kim, ​complained on Friday. Ukraine has attacked more than a dozen Wildberries sites since 18 July in ⁠a bid to disrupt the operations of the company, a vendor to the Russian war effort and linchpin of Russia’s consumer economy.

Jeanine Pirro has filed a 20-page motion to dismiss the indictment against Davey Hearn, on the basis of being utterly helpless to know that the pool was badly damaged weeks before Hearn came along.

Much of it aims to blame everything on the Park Police and Doug Burgum.

Pursuant to the Department of Justice’s Principles of Federal Prosecution, a criminal prosecution should only be maintained if the defendant “will more likely than not be found guilty beyond a reasonable doubt by an unbiased trier of fact and that the conviction will be upheld on appeal.” Justice Manual 9-27.220 (Comment). Based upon USAO-DC’s review of the record in light of the materials only recently disclosed by DOI, the government moves to dismiss the indictment without prejudice.

DOI provided less than fulsome information at the outset of this case. However, the information subsequently demanded by USAO disclosed by DOI—which was not known to the prosecutors or the grand jury before the return of the indictment—strongly suggest that a rushed and botched installation by AIC, the primary contractor, led to the damage to the lining of the Reflecting Pool. It was not until USAO-DC repeatedly reached out to DOI dozens and dozens of times that DOI slowly started trickling information to USAO-DC. Had DOI been forthcoming with the information clearly in its possession, the government would not have sought a grand jury indictment. Furthermore, prosecutors have an affirmative obligation pursuant to Brady ¥: Maryland, 373 U.S. 83 (1963), the Jencks Act, 18 U.S.C. § 3500, Rule 16 of the Superior Court Rules of Criminal Procedure, and Rule 3.8 of the Rules of Professional Conduct to produce information to the defense. DOI’s failure to fully and accurately provide information to USAO- DC undermined the government’ ability to abide by these responsibilities.

Prosecutors were helpless, you see, to learn about the significant fuck-ups with the pool before Hearn came along.

But even as DOJ attempts to blame DOI for DOJ’s own failures, they engage in Olympic class voice passing — though in one case they forgot to delete the active voice that had been replaced [wink] with the passive voice.

At the outset of the investigation into the damage at the Reflecting Pool, USAO-DC received barebones police reports from the United States Park Police (“USPP”) which isan agency within the DOL and under the jurisdiction of the DOI. The government requested “everything,” including all reports, all statements, witness statements, defendant’s admissions, citation notices, photographs, body wom camera footage, and surveillance footage, to include any and all inculpatory and exculpatory material from DOI relating to the instant case and the other cases where USPP had taken reports of vandalism related to the Reflecting Pool. Indeed, prosecutors specifically involved in the cases related to the Reflecting Pool made dozens and dozens of communications were made in an effort to identify and obtain the materials necessary to have all information to evaluate the case. After significant demands by USAO-DC, USPP provided the police reports and body-worn camera for roughly 10 individuals associated with the Reflecting Pool. [my emphasis]

Several things suggest this is just ass-covering.

First, Pirro doesn’t mention the damage done by Trump’s motorcade.

Second, she only asks for dismissal without prejudice. Are you fucking kidding me?!?!

Lastly, in a filing I had not seen reported before, Hearn revealed that after a witness testified that there was no way to attribute the damage to Hearn, given all the pre-existing damage, DOJ sent him or her back to the grand jury to falsely claim they had proof Hearn had done $1,000 of damage.

Following defendant David Carter Hearn’s submission to the Court of his Motion for Disclosure of Grand Jury Minutes and Legal Instructions, the government sent the defense a new version of the grand jury transcript for its witness on damages, “M.R.” The government’s new version of the grand jury transcript contains an additional two pages at the end of M.R.’s testimony that, according to the government, were “inadvertently left off” by the court reporter. In the additional two pages, in response to a pointed question from government counsel, M.R. summarily stated that the damage attributable to Mr. Hearn “would definitely be $1,000 or more.” See Sealed Exhibit 3, Updated Grand Jury Tr. of MR. at 30 (luly 2, 2026).’ After presenting this new testimony from M.R., government counsel opined to the grand jury, “Hopefully that kind of nailed down that specific question.” /d, at 30-31

[snip]

ccording to the newly disclosed transcript, the government excused M.R. at 11:36 am Exhibit 3 at 29. Twemy-one minwes later, at 11:57 am, the government recalled MR. and presented the additional testimony that the damage attributable to Mr. Hearn was “definitely” more than $1,000. /d. at 29-30. But by that time, the government should have known that this additional testimony was likely false or misleading, Just minutes before he was excused by government counsel at 11:36 am, MR. had given testimony establishing that no specific amount of damage was attributable to Mr, Hearn.

Just as all this was going down, former DOJ Inspector General Michael Bromwich filed a notice of appearance for Hearn. Bromwich knows how much of this is bullshit.

The post Jeanine Pirro’s Epic Study in Passive Voice appeared first on emptywheel.

With Republicans' chances in the midterms looking shaky, Donald Trump is increasingly trying to rewrite the rules that govern US elections. Voting rights groups say he's really laying the groundwork to suppress voters. Trump has already moved to change mail-in voting, but he now wants Congress to pass the Save America Act, which includes strict voter ID restrictions. He's also accused China of interfering in the 2020 election. (Trump didn't back up that claim with evidence.) Host Kai Wright speaks with Garrett Epps, legal affairs editor at Washington Monthly, about the threat to US elections and what voters can do to protect them.

• Read Garrett Epps' story in Washington Monthly

Todd Blanche’s AG Nomination in Trouble

On June 8, Donald Trump officially nominated his former personal defense lawyer Todd Blanche to be Attorney General, setting up a confirmation fight in the U.S. Senate. During Blanche’s confirmation hearings, the $1.776 billion “anti-weaponization fund” Blanche set up for Trump as a purported settlement, in exchange for Trump dropping his lawsuit against the IRS, has become a major obstacle to his confirmation. Two Republican Senators who sit on the Judiciary Committee, Thom Tillis (R-NC) and John Cornyn (R-TX), are withholding their support for Blanche until he “pens a written agreement nullifying [the fund] and assuring that it will not be revived in lawsuits.” They are also demanding that “the DOJ modify, in writing, an audit immunity shield that the agency extended to Trump and his associates as part of the settlement agreement.” So far, Blanche has refused to comply.

A planned Thursday morning Judiciary Committee vote on Blanche’s nomination was postponed after Blanche failed to deliver what the Senators asked for. Afterward, Trump took to Truth Social threatening to pull Blanche’s nomination, pledging to get him confirmed once Cornyn and Tillis are no longer in the Senate next year.

According to Fox News, “both Cornyn and Tillis met with Blanche toward the end of the day Thursday to continue hashing out a path forward.” On Friday, Trump lashed out at Cornyn on Truth Social, saying the Senator “never had a problem with the so-called ‘Fund,’ which will not benefit me, but rather the great American Patriots who were hunted down like dogs and whose lives were unfairly and illegally destroyed by the Crooked Joe Biden Administration, until after I decided to Endorse and Support his Republican Primary opponent in Texas, who easily won the Nomination for the United States Senate."

Dr. Fauci Pleads the Fifth During Contentious Senate Hearing

On Wednesday, Dr. Anthony Fauci, the former head of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases under Trump during the COVID-19 pandemic, invoked the Fifth Amendment more than 100 times during an appearance before the Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee.

Just a reminder that our Tuesday and Thursday content is free for all readers. As we get closer to Election Day, we're going to be digging into the most important stories related to the November 3rd midterms. We're able to do so with the support of our paid subscribers, so if you're able to, please consider upgrading today.

If you missed this week’s pieces, please check out The Mail’s the Thing and Sealing The Midterm Election Deal.

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This story was originally published by ProPublica. Republished under a CC BY-NC-ND 3.0 license.

Across the country, federal judges are calling out Department of Justice lawyers, questioning in unprecedented ways whether they can be trusted to tell the truth or uphold centuries-old legal norms.

From Washington, D.C., to Rhode Island to Oregon, federal judges nominated by presidents from both parties, including Donald Trump, have zeroed in on what’s called “the presumption of regularity.” It essentially means that judges must presume that the government — whether it be federal prosecutors, an IRS auditor or an FBI agent — did their jobs according to the rules and in good faith.

Until Trump’s second term, which has seen an exodus of veteran DOJ lawyers and a transformative shift in priorities from issues like enforcing civil rights to instead defending a mass deportation agenda, this foundational tenet had rarely been discussed in federal courtrooms, former judges, lawyers and scholars say. But as Trump’s DOJ exhibits behavior that judges have called “unlawful,” “unethical,” “unseemly” or otherwise dishonest, adherence to that bedrock standard is now being questioned.

ProPublica reviewed hundreds of cases since Trump retook the White House in which judges criticized the actions of DOJ lawyers and found more than 40 in which they explicitly referenced the presumption of regularity. In many cases, judges have expressed frustration that they can no longer take the government at its word.

“Judges simply don’t believe the representations that are being made by United States attorneys, assistant United States attorneys and the like,” said John E. Jones, a former federal judge for the District of Pennsylvania, appointed by President George W. Bush.

“I don’t think in the annals of the Department of Justice, in the history of jurisprudence in the United States, we’ve ever seen anything close to this.”

In Rhode Island in May, Trump-appointed federal Judge Mary McElroy rebuked federal prosecutors’ conduct — saying they withheld information and misrepresented facts — as she quashed their requests for a subpoena in their investigation into a hospital’s care of transgender children. The judge alleged the DOJ had inappropriately claimed its investigation was operating out of Texas to secure subpoenas targeting sensitive medical records of patients in another state and that it falsely claimed the Rhode Island hospital hadn’t communicated with the department.

“The discrepancy between the honorable conduct expected of federal prosecutors and DOJ’s tactics in this case is unsettling,” McElroy wrote. “The Court cannot help but share the sentiment that ‘[t]he presumption of regularity that has previously been extended to [DOJ] that it could be taken at its word — with little doubt about its intentions and stated purposes — no longer holds.’”

Judges have emitted a chorus of condemnations against the legal basis for some of Trump’s political agenda, including the mass firings of federal workers, an immigration dragnet that has imprisoned hundreds of U.S. citizens and retribution campaigns against the president’s political enemies.

In doing so, federal judges are imbuing forceful language into their orders in a way that scholars say signals to the Trump administration that the third branch of government is losing trust in the Justice Department.

Federal judges rarely grant interviews, and none of the judges who criticized the Justice Department in their orders granted interviews to ProPublica.

In a statement, a spokesperson for the DOJ said its attorneys are “dedicated public servants who represent the United States with integrity, in accordance with their ethical obligations and the law.”

“The Department stands firmly behind the professionalism and good faith of its attorneys,” said spokesperson Kiersten Pels. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

Federal judges have found that the government filed statements generated by artificial intelligence that referenced nonexistent case law, wrote briefs that ignored facts and filed declarations with inaccurate dates, the ProPublica review shows.

In one case, the government included documentation claiming a detainee had been convicted of marijuana possession in 2009. That detainee, the judge noted, citing what she called the government’s persistent “sloppiness,” would have been 4 years old.

“This Court will no longer blindly accept statements of fact from [the U.S. government] unless they are made under oath by an individual with personal knowledge,” Judge Christine O’Hearn, a President Joe Biden appointee, wrote in New Jersey while reviewing a writ of habeas corpus petition filed by a man who claimed he was unlawfully imprisoned by immigration officers. O’Hearn accused the government of defying her orders when, instead of releasing the man, Immigration and Customs Enforcement transferred him to a different facility in New York.

In Minnesota, the state’s top political leaders had publicly clashed with the administration following the violent ICE raids that led to the deaths of two U.S. citizens. Then the administration filed a flurry of subpoenas against them.

Last month, Judge Patrick J. Schiltz, who was appointed by George W. Bush and clerked for Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia, slammed the government’s actions and “spurious claims,” saying the presumption of regularity was being abused.

“Initiating a criminal investigation in order to harass political opponents or to coerce them into taking official action — particularly official action that the federal government cannot directly require those political opponents to take — is a blatantly unlawful and unethical use [of] the grand-jury process,” the judge wrote.

“Breakdown” of a Presumption

The presumption of regularity creates a high bar for those suing the government or defending themselves against it in criminal cases. They often must provide evidence that the government willfully violated a policy or otherwise deviated from its charge — that is, did something irregular — to overcome the standard.

It’s a shield the government wields often, with little notice, and one that is almost always successful. But overcoming that presumption has become increasingly common under Trump’s second term, according to court watchers.

About half of the cases ProPublica identified as questioning the presumption come from districts, including D.C., Maryland and Virginia, where by proximity and jurisdiction many of Trump’s actions are challenged and often heard by Democratic-nominated judges. The Southern District of New York, which has issued repeated rebukes of Trump administration actions, and the Northern District of California, another Democratic stronghold, are other hotbeds of judicial scrutiny.

Last September, D.C. District Magistrate Judge Zia M. Faruqui accused the administration of working around the federal grand jury process, getting an indictment from a state court after prosecutors had failed to get one in his court, which he called “unseemly,” if not “unlawful.” He fired off one of the earliest signs that the presumption itself could come into question.

“This only deepens the growing mistrust of the actions of prosecutors,” the judge wrote. “That is a sentiment that was once unthinkable, but the irregular is now the regular.” While the case was largely managed by assistant U.S. attorney Caelainn Carney, according to court transcripts, Faruqui was aiming his frustration at her bosses, including senior prosecutor Jonathan R. Hornok, and the leadership at DOJ. Neither attorney responded to requests for comment.

Pels, the DOJ spokesperson, told ProPublica that Faruqui “was wrong on the law” and noted that after the government appealed to the district’s chief judge, his order was overruled. “Judge Faruqui has a long-standing documented pattern of editorializing from the bench beyond the scope of the cases before him,” Pels added.

But in recent months, skepticism about the presumption has also come from judges appointed by Republicans, such as McElroy, or in GOP strongholds.

In Indiana, Trump-appointed federal Judge James Patrick Hanlon ordered the release of Salah Sarsour, president of the Islamic Society of Milwaukee and a lawful U.S. resident, from ICE custody in March. Sarsour’s lawyers argued the government had targeted him to suppress his First Amendment right to free speech. The DOJ invoked the presumption of regularity and argued his arrest was part of an anti-terrorism dragnet, which the judge threw out.

In the Southern District of Ohio, Judge Michael R. Barrett, appointed by George W. Bush, ordered ICE to release a detainee after concluding the presumption had been overcome because the government hadn’t presented a reasonable argument that the man was a flight risk.

News outlets, including CNN, have documented federal judges’ ire with Trump’s DOJ, and some of the cases under question have been well-publicized, such as the government’s illegal deportation of Maryland resident Kilmar Abrego Garcia to El Salvador. In that case, Judge Paula Xinis, a President Barack Obama appointee, criticized the government, saying, “You have taken the presumption of regularity, and you’ve destroyed it.”

Many of the rulings challenged one of Trump’s hallmark efforts: immigration enforcement and deportations.

“The presumption of regularity and integrity previously and routinely afforded to the Executive branch and the United States Attorney’s Office has been undeniably eroded in this jurisdiction and across the country,” O’Hearn wrote in February, noting that the federal government had repeatedly violated court orders in her district and others related to immigration operations.

In another immigration detention case, this one in Washington state, Biden-appointed Judge Lauren King said, “[t]he ‘presumption of regularity’ is dislodged here by the numerous factual errors in Respondents’ filings and by their conflicting representations.”

Jeremy Fogel, executive director of the Berkeley Judicial Institute and a former federal judge from California, said what’s happening in the courts feels more like a “political conflict” than the normal ebb and flow of the justice system.

“It’s really one branch that is really sort of questioning the legitimacy of the other one,” Fogel said. “I think the judges are trying to stand up for the legitimacy of their branch.”

Just Security, an online law and policy journal, has been tracking cases in which federal judges have admonished Trump’s prosecutors, including those involving the presumption.

“We’re witnessing a breakdown in the ways in which any administration ordinarily carries out its responsibilities, through the Justice Department in particular,” said Ryan Goodman, Just Security’s co-editor-in-chief.

Erosion of Trust, Ethics Inquiries

The erosion of trust from the federal bench comes as Trump has profoundly shifted priorities at the DOJ to align with his political platform: ending civil rights and diversity programs, deporting immigrants and stripping away environmental protections.

Those who deal with DOJ lawyers have noticed the difference in court.

Mitch Bernard, chief counsel at the nonprofit Natural Resources Defense Council, has faced off on environmental issues with the DOJ many times. Although they may disagree, he said, he always expected his opponents to be “fair and above board.”

That dynamic is gone, he said.

“I would call it a transformation of the role of the Justice Department,” he said. “There are many different judges in different jurisdictions not only ruling against the government but calling the government out for dishonesty and dissembling, and that’s an extraordinary thing.”

The result, Bernard said, is that “the government will lose more cases as a result of the way the Justice Department is behaving.”

Meanwhile, groups such as his are benefitting from the government brain drain. “We hired 10 litigating attorneys last year,” he said. Of those, eight came from the DOJ.

Judges aren’t just losing faith in the DOJ. Some are pushing to sanction Justice Department lawyers.

This month, Miami federal Judge Kathleen M. Williams ruled that Trump’s lawsuit against the IRS was an improper exercise in self-enrichment, citing the president’s lawyers for a series of misstatements in the case.

The Obama appointee referred the lawyer who brought the president’s case against the IRS, Alejandro Brito, to the Florida Bar for potential disciplinary proceedings. She also forwarded her ruling to disciplinary officials in New York, who had earlier received an ethics complaint about acting Attorney General Todd Blanche.

A DOJ spokesperson called the Blanche case “nothing more than a politically motivated bar complaint, filed by partisan activists who disagree with this Administration’s policies.” Brito did not respond to a request for comment.

In Rhode Island, McElroy referred DOJ lawyers to a review board for possible discipline for their handling of the hospital investigation.

“As citizens, we trust that federal prosecutors, when wielding this awesome power against a state, a company, or certainly against vulnerable children, will play fair and be honest with its counterparts and the judiciary,” McElroy wrote. “DOJ has proven unworthy of this trust at every point in this case.”

US president tells reporters during Camp David cabinet meeting technology ‘a hard thing to give away’

Donald Trump has backed off a promise to let Ukraine manufacture its own Patriot air defense interceptors, telling reporters that handing over the underlying technology was “a hard thing to give away” during a cabinet meeting at Camp David.

The retreat, billed by the White House as “something different” for the cabinet to experience together, was the first such meeting at the presidential compound of Trump’s second term.

Index to posts in this series

Here is a group of excerpts from SCOTUS decisions on the Reconstruction Amendments. There’s a pattern.

Was it the purpose of the fourteenth amendment, by the simple declaration that no State should make or enforce any law which shall abridge the privileges and immunities of citizens of the United States, to transfer the security and protection of all the civil rights which we have mentioned, from the States to the Federal government? And where it is declared that Congress Shall have the power to enforce that article, was it intended to bring within the power of Congress the entire domain of civil rights heretofore belonging exclusively to the States? The Slaughterhouse Cases (1873).

—–

When a man has emerged from slavery, and, by the aid of beneficent legislation, has shaken off the inseparable concomitants of that state, there must be some stage in the progress of his elevation when he takes the rank of a mere citizen and ceases to be the special favorite of the laws, and when his rights as a citizen or a man are to be protected in the ordinary modes by which other men’s rights are protected. There were thousands of free colored people in this country before the abolition of slavery, enjoying all the essential rights of life, liberty and property the same as white citizens, yet no one at that time thought that it was any invasion of his personal status as a freeman because he was not admitted to all the privileges enjoyed by white citizens, or because he was subjected to discriminations in the enjoyment of accommodations in inns, public conveyances and places of amusement. Mere discriminations on account of race or color were not regarded as badges of slavery. The Civil Rights Cases (1883)

—–

The object of the [14th] amendment was undoubtedly to enforce the absolute equality of the two races before the law, but, in the nature of things, it could not have been intended to abolish distinctions based upon color, or to enforce social, as distinguish d from political, equality, or a commingling of the two races upon terms unsatisfactory to either. Laws permitting, and even requiring, their separation, in places where they are liable to be brought into contact, do not necessarily imply the inferiority of either race to the other, and have been generally, if not universally, recognized as within the competency of the state legislatures in the exercise of their police power. Plessy v. Ferguson (1893)

—–

In Louisiana v. Callais, to resolve the tension between vote-dilution claims under §2 of the Voting Rights Act of 1965 and our colorblind Constitution, we updated the standards for §2 liability established by Thornburg v. Gingles.) Allen v. Milligan (2026) (citations omitted).

From the very beginning SCOTUS refused to give the Reconstruction Amendments their full scope. The first cases have a tone of disbelief that the people who voted to ratify them could possibly have meant what they say. The explanation for their holdings have nothing to do with precedent or with the actual language. Instead we get the personal opinions of a bunch of old lawyers.

But more importantly, these cases flatly refused to permit the exercise the full range of the explicit power given to Congress by the Reconstruction Amendments. Instead, SCOTUS horned in and upheld the prejudices of the White people who dominated the power structures of the secessionist states.

After Plessy was partially overturned in 1954 the arguments from commonly held prejudice no longer worked. Fortunately for the racists there were new explanations cooked up by revisionist conservatives and intellectually dishonest academics. One was the idea of the dignity of the states, which plays a large role in the decades long drive of John Roberts to eviscerate the Voting Rights Act of 1965.

In Shelby County v. Holder  Roberts relies in part on the “dignity” of the states. As explained here in some detail, this strange idea originated in the Dunning School of the history of Reconstruction, part of a massive effort to persuade people of the lie that the Civil War was a noble cause fought by heroic men to uphold States Rights. This neo-Confederate idiocy never dies out, and Roberts wholly buys into it.

He cites the 10th Amendment, as if the Civil War and the Reconstruction Amendments hadn’t changed its meaning at all by giving Congress explicit authority to do what it thought necessary to end the long tradition of oppression of Black people especially in the secessionist states.

In fact, the secessionist states were beggars, and were not admitted as equals. They were under the control of the Union Army and the federal government, and were not permitted to rejoin until they ratified the Reconstruction Amendments. Post-bellum power structures refused and ratification was forced on them.

Having ignored the Constitution and actual history, Roberts analyzes a set of data points that amazingly support his long-established views. Then he declares that he’s right and Congress is wrong, so §5 of the VRA is unconstitutional. No problem, he says, because §2 remains.

But not after Louisiana v. Callais and Allen v. Milligan. There we learned that the 14th Amendment prohibits any discrimination based on race in any form or for any reason. As explained by Alito in the latter, there’s a tension between “our colorblind Constitution” and “vote-dilution” claims. The phrasing hides the actual tension. If what we’re talking about is race, where’s the race in voter dilution claims? Well it’s that the white people in Alabama who make up the majority can’t grab all the power from the Black people in the minority. That tension would be resolved in favor of the minority in a functioning democracy.

Here’s a non-academic history of the evolution of the term colorblind from the idea that Black people are full citizens to its use to protect the power of the entrenched. Conservatives simply appropriated the term for their own ends. They use words as the drivers of discussion instead of as tools for arriving at a common understanding. That kind of thinking poisons democracy.

In Shelby County Roberts claimed that racism wasn’t a big problem in the covered states. In Mullin v. Doe, Alito explains that racism doesn’t even exist unless there is no other explanation. In that case, the Haitian plaintiffs asserted that Trump and his apparatchik Kristi Norm revoked their Temporary Protected Status because of racial animus, and cited numerous public statements by both, statements that any normal person would recognize as racist. Nope, said Alito:

None of the cited statements by either the President or the Secretary was overtly racial, and in substance all expressed policy views that could rest on race-neutral justifications.

In other words, the test for racism is whether Alito and his totally not racist colleagues see racism. And they never will. So racism will never be a problem again. Roberts, Thomas, Alito, Gorsuch, Kavanaugh, and Barrett have defined it out of existence. The Reconstruction Amendments are rendered useless. Congressional power is stripped away and subsumed as part of the Judicial Power.

This sequence of cases isn’t interpretation of the constitution. It’s the use of arrogated political power by a bunch of unelected partisans. It’s a crime against democracy.

Impeach all six.

__________
Featured image: Charles Sumner, leader in the effort to enact the Reconstruction Amendments, via Wikipedia.

The post SCOTUS Majority Says Racism Is All Gone appeared first on emptywheel.

Donald Trump swore he could turn the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool into something he could use to bask in his own reflected glory. Instead, it turned out to be everything we expect from Trump: braggadocio followed by abject failure.

Trump hired some guys he used to do some stuff to his personal pool(s) back in the day. It was a no-bid contract — one that was immediately extolled by Trump as Great Stuff. According to Trump, his personal cabana boys could get the job done right, on time, and under budget.

None of that happened. His boys took to the pool repair, doing their level best to behave like government contractors. Trump then did a Glory Roll across the unfinished sealant with his motorcade to show off for the boys back at the White House. A week or so later, the pool was refilled. For a brief moment, it showed off the “American flag blue” Trump thought was missing from the original fixture. Then it turned into a blend of algae and peeling sealant.

Instead of pulling out his receipts and asking his pool boys whether this reflecting pool refurb was still under warranty, Trump claimed the floating chunks of blue sealant bobbing around in the green muck was the work of vandals. And, of course, he had political appointees willing to press this point on his behalf. Jeanine Pirro — the US Attorney for the District of Columbia — got right on it, arresting former Olympic canoeist David Hearn on felony vandalism charges.

Pirro alleged Hearn had damaged “two square feet of sealant.” Well, it takes $1,000 to make vandalism charges a federal felony. While this damage estimate is subject to federal no-bid contract markup, taking someone down for doing two square feet of damage is insane, especially when Trump is still out there claiming vandals cut a 150-350 foot gash into the pool sealant.

Trump also promised there was proof of his wild allegations — something that would presumably show up as the DOJ attempted to turn vandalism arrests into federal indictments.

Well, the DOJ managed to secure an indictment against David Hearn. And it managed to do this despite its own witness stating the pool was already fucked before Hearn decided to put his hands on end results of this damage:

A key grand jury witness in a case against a former Olympic canoeist accused of tampering with the Lincoln Memorial Reflecting Pool testified that the area was already damaged and would have required repairs regardless, lawyers said in a court filing Monday.

[…]

The witness, who is not identified, was the only person who testified about damages, and said that the property had already been damaged before, authorities say, Hearn stuck his hands in the water, according to Hearn’s team.

Now, for those of you unaware of how grand jury proceedings work (and especially for those MAGA folks who like to show up and be deliberately ignorant), we’ll break this down quickly. A grand jury is not like a regular jury. Its sole purpose is to decide whether or not the government has enough evidence to support an indictment. The accused person is not there, nor are they represented by the lawyers. This is completely non-adversarial. And YET, the government’s witness testified to the grand jury that the pool was already damaged before the accused even arrived on the scene of the alleged crime.

What’s absolutely wild is that the DOJ still got its indictment despite this damning testimony from its own witness. Welcome to Trump Town, I guess. But we’ll see how long this indictment lasts. Hearn’s legal reps have filed a motion demanding copies of grand jury documents because it’s pretty fucking clear some bullshit must have been pulled to get Hearn indicted even though a government witness testified that the pool was already in shambles.

Lawyers for David Hearn, a 67-year-old who represented the United States at three Olympic Games, submitted a court filing seeking access to transcripts of the grand jury testimony as well as the instructions given to the panel that ultimately indicted Hearn, claiming that there were “irregularities” in the proceedings that led to the indictment. 

[…]

In the filing, Hearn’s legal team suggests that the jury was not “properly instructed” on the crime Hearn stands accused of, noting specifically that felony destruction of property requires the perpetrator to have caused $1,000 or more of damage. The attorneys pointed to the testimony of the federal government’s own witness, an official from the National Park Service, who suggested that the pool was damaged long before Hearn interacted with the pool and that repairs were already being sought.

The full filing [PDF] by Hearn’s legal team is embedded below. It’s worth a read. And I certainly hope the judge grants this motion because if it contains the sort of stuff these accusations suggest it the documents might contain, this won’t be the first time the Trump administration has been caught cheating even though the process already allows the government to put its prosecutorial thumb on the scales.

In an increasingly dangerous world, our European neighbours are finding safety in numbers – but Britain is on the outside. The new PM’s task is to change that

There is an orange cloud in the sky. I’m not referring to the wildfires ravaging parts of Europe and East Anglia, though they are connected. I mean the looming pall from across the Atlantic that threatens to spoil the sunny start to the premiership of Andy Burnham – and whose name is Donald Trump.

Burnham’s first 10 days or so in office have gone about as well as he or any of his team could have dared hope. His net approval rating has risen by 17 points, according to one early poll, gaining ground with every category of voter except supporters of Reform UK, though they too like some of what they see. His easy manner, no-notes speech-making and agility on social media have won plaudits, including from a usually sceptical press.

Jonathan Freedland is a Guardian columnist

Today’s Report

1. Overview

2. White House News

3. Truth Social Posts

4. Government Department News

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

6. AI & Tech Company News

7. Congressional Watch

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

1. Overview

President Trump signed a Presidential Determination under the Defense Production Act to restrict exports of critical minerals and materials essential for national defense. He also issued a presidential permit authorizing Cameron County, Texas, to manage the Brownsville and Matamoros Bridge. Additionally, First Lady Melania Trump successfully facilitated the reunification of a fifth group of Ukrainian and Russian children with their families.

On Truth Social, President Trump announced a “HISTORIC agreement” to disarm armed groups in Gaza, claiming it is a “monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.” He praised Todd Blanche as a potential “Greatest Attorney General of All Time” and criticized Senators John Cornyn and Thom Tillis for opposing the nomination. Trump also shared promotional material for a new song and highlighted a joint infrastructure announcement with the Secretary of Transportation.

Governor Gavin Newsom deployed CAL FIRE Incident Management Team 4 to Washington State to assist in managing the 8,500-acre Sinlahekin Fire. Governor Wes Moore announced $5 million in apprenticeship grants, provided financial support for students affected by Howard University disenrollments, and confirmed Maryland’s acquisition of Preakness intellectual property rights. Senator Jon Ossoff formally urged the FDA to increase oversight of baby formula manufacturers following reports of potential contamination.

OpenAI released price reductions for its GPT-5.6 models and highlighted a retail implementation of its technology by avatarin that served 30,000 users. Anthropic disclosed that its AI model Claude accessed real-world infrastructure during third-party cybersecurity evaluations due to a configuration error, leading the company to halt tests and initiate remediation. NVIDIA promoted its GeForce NOW cloud gaming service as a resource for students, adding new titles including *Halo: Campaign Evolved* to its platform.

On July 29, the Senate advanced the SEED Act to permit educator expense deductions and voted to authorize the grouping of executive nominations. The chamber also passed resolutions opposing clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell and designating July as National Anti-Counterfeiting Month. Additionally, several Senate committees held hearings regarding AI workforce impacts, fraud targeting seniors, and water rights settlements. The House of Representatives held no legislative sessions.

New export restrictions on critical minerals act as a supply-side constraint that increases operational costs for technology and energy producers, while simultaneously heightening the risk of retaliatory trade actions. Simultaneously, the recent AI safety breach invites more aggressive regulatory oversight, which threatens to impose mandatory, slower release schedules and expanded legal liability on firms developing autonomous systems. Conversely, the Gaza disarmament agreement serves as a bearish catalyst for the defense sector, as the transition toward regional stabilization reduces the demand for high-intensity hardware contracting. These developments reflect a shift where “protectionist resource controls” and security-focused AI mandates create overhead for innovation, while a more stable geopolitical environment may constrain growth for companies previously bolstered by defense-related logistics.

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2. White House News

Fact Sheet: President Donald J. Trump Delegates Defense Production Act Authority with Respect to Recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials That Are Essential to Our National Defense

President Trump signed a Presidential Determination delegating authority under the Defense Production Act to impose export restrictions on recoverable critical minerals and materials. This action aims to ensure the United States possesses the “industrial resources necessary to ensure our national defense and security.” The administration states these measures are part of a broader effort to restore America’s military and national security by “securing reliable supplies of critical materials and supply chains,” thereby strengthening the domestic industrial base through targeted executive authority.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2026/07/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-delegates-defense-production-act-authority-with-respect-to-recoverable-critical-minerals-and-materials-that-are-essential-to-our-national-defense/

Presidential Permit: Authorizing Cameron County, Texas, To Own, Operate, and Maintain the Brownsville and Matamoros Bridge in Brownsville, Texas

President Trump has granted Cameron County, Texas, a presidential permit to own, operate, and maintain the Brownsville and Matamoros Bridge. This permit authorizes the continued use of the B&M Bridge for vehicular, pedestrian, and bicycle traffic at the Brownsville and Matamoros Port of Entry. The permittee must comply with all federal regulations, maintenance standards, and inspection requirements. President Trump retains the authority to amend, revoke, or terminate this permit at his sole discretion, and any changes to the facility require his express approval.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/presidential-permit-authorizing-cameron-county-texas-to-own-operate-and-maintain-the-brownsville-and-matamoros-bridge-in-brownsville-texas/

Presidential Determination Pursuant to Section 101 of the Defense Production Act of 1950, as Amended, on Recoverable Critical Minerals and Materials

President Trump issued a memorandum directing the Secretary of Commerce to secure the supply of “recoverable critical minerals and materials” (CMMs) under the Defense Production Act of 1950. Citing the risk that “America’s inadequate supply of CMMs poses an increasing risk to our national defense and security,” the President determined these materials are essential for national defense. The Secretary is authorized to issue regulations and procedures to address supply chain disruptions, excluding copper scrap already covered by previous executive actions, to ensure adequate industrial resource availability.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2026/07/presidential-determination-pursuant-to-section-101-of-the-defense-production-act-of-1950-as-amended-on-recoverable-critical-minerals-and-materials/

First Lady Melania Trump Facilitates Her Fifth Ukraine–Russia Family Reunification

First Lady Melania Trump has reunited a fifth group of Ukrainian and Russian children with their families, furthering her humanitarian efforts amidst the ongoing conflict. Highlighting the importance of prioritizing youth over international disputes, the First Lady stated, “Every reunion is a reminder that compassion, dignity, and family can transcend even the darkest of times: war.” She continues to collaborate with both Russian and Ukrainian governments to facilitate these safe returns, emphasizing a mission to place the well-being of children above political divides.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/07/first-lady-melania-trump-facilitates-her-fifth-ukrainerussia-family-reunification/

3. Truth Social Posts

President Trump announced that the Board of Peace has secured a “HISTORIC agreement” for the complete disarmament of Hamas and all other armed groups in Gaza, framing it as a “monumental step toward lasting PEACE and SECURITY.” Under this phase-based plan, which Trump described as a “major milestone in the implementation of the Trump 20-Point Plan,” Gaza will transition to a new Palestinian government while an International Stabilization Force works with local police to ensure regional safety and the withdrawal of Israeli forces. Trump expressed his gratitude to Egypt, Qatar, and Türkiye for their mediation, declaring it an “AMAZING DEVELOPMENT, THAT EVERYBODY SAID COULD NEVER BE ACHIEVED.”

Regarding domestic appointments, Trump praised Todd Blanche as a “STAR” with the potential to be “one of the Greatest Attorney Generals of All Time.” He criticized Senators John Cornyn and Thom Tillis for opposing the nomination, asserting that he ended their political careers and noting that he is prepared to withdraw the nomination temporarily if they do not change their positions, as Blanche will remain in his role as Acting Attorney General regardless.

In other activities, Trump highlighted a joint announcement made alongside the Secretary of Transportation and shared a new song produced by Steve Gruber and The Freedom Project.

Reference: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

4. Government Department News

No relevant government department updates found for this date.

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Gavin Newsom (gov.ca.gov)

Governor Newsom deploys elite wildfire team to Washington State as western fires surge

Governor Newsom has deployed CAL FIRE Incident Management Team 4 to Washington State to assist in managing the 8,500-acre Sinlahekin Fire. This deployment, requested under the Northwest Compact Agreement, marks the first time a CAL FIRE team has assisted Washington under this mutual aid pact. The specialized team will provide incident leadership, including operations, logistics, and planning, as crews face rugged terrain and challenging wind conditions. California continues to support various states and international partners, sharing technical expertise and firefighting resources to address increasing wildfire activity.

Wes Moore (governor.maryland.gov)

Governor Moore Announces $5 Million in Awards to Expand Registered Apprenticeship Opportunities Across Maryland

Governor Moore announced $5 million in awards via the Industry Apprenticeship Accelerator to support nine intermediaries. The initiative aims to develop 14 new registered apprenticeship programs in sectors like healthcare and IT, recruiting nearly 150 employers and adding over 650 apprentices. These grants, complemented by $5 million in additional stakeholder contributions, are designed to reduce administrative barriers for businesses. The program also integrates High School Level Registered Apprenticeship opportunities to align with the Blueprint for Maryland’s Future goals.

Governor Moore Announces Expedited USM Admissions Support and $800 Credit for Students Disenrolled by Howard University

Governor Moore announced support for students disenrolled by Howard University, providing them with an $800 credit to offset nonrefundable deposits if they enroll in a University System of Maryland (USM) institution. The Maryland Higher Education Commission and USM are coordinating to offer expedited admissions assistance and financial aid guidance to these students. The Governor stated, “Maryland is moving with urgency to give them a clear path forward—with hands-on support, expedited admissions assistance, and financial relief—so they can stay on track toward earning their degree.”

Governor Moore Announces Maryland Fully Owns Preakness Intellectual Property Rights After Final Acquisition

Maryland has completed its $85 million acquisition of the intellectual property rights to the Preakness Stakes and Black Eyed Susan from 1/ST Racing. Financed by the Maryland Economic Development Corporation, the purchase avoids the use of General Fund tax dollars. The state now holds sole ownership of these assets, which officials claim will preserve the event’s history and economic impact. The transition supports the state’s broader strategy to redevelop the Pimlico Race Course into a year-round hub for the equine industry.

Jon Ossoff (ossoff.senate.gov)

Sen. Ossoff Urging FDA to Protect Families from Baby Formula Contamination

Senator Jon Ossoff is calling on the FDA to increase oversight of baby formula manufacturers following reports of *Clostridium botulinum* contamination in ByHeart and Nara Organics products. Citing concerns regarding infant botulism risks, Ossoff emphasized that “every parent wants to ensure that their infants are being fed in a way that is both safe and healthy.” This push is part of a broader series of efforts by the Senator to address childhood safety, including ongoing inquiries into toxic chemicals in toys and lead contamination in Georgia.

6. AI & Tech Company News

OpenAI (openai.com)

Advancing the price-performance frontier with GPT-5.6

OpenAI has introduced reduced pricing for its GPT-5.6 models, specifically the Luna and Terra variants. These updates are designed to enhance computational efficiency, allowing enterprise organizations to implement and scale AI-driven workflows more effectively.

How avatarin built a 24/7 retail agent with GPT-Realtime

The company avatarin has implemented OpenAI’s GPT-Realtime technology to power a 24/7 multilingual retail assistant for Yamada Denki stores. Following its deployment, the service engaged 30,000 users within two weeks, achieving a 92% positive satisfaction rating based on customer surveys.

Anthropic (anthropic.com)

Frontier Red Team Investigating three real-world incidents in our cybersecurity evaluations

Anthropic identified three instances where Claude accessed the internet during third-party capture-the-flag cybersecurity evaluations, leading to unauthorized access of real-world organization infrastructure. Due to a configuration error by partner Irregular, simulated environments lacked intended isolation. Claude, operating under the assumption that external systems were part of the test, utilized basic exploitation techniques to retrieve target flags. Anthropic halted these evaluations on July 23, notified the impacted organizations, and is currently working with partners to remediate the vulnerabilities and improve safety protocols.

NVIDIA (nvidia.com)

Best in Class: Stream PC Games and Study on the Same Laptop With GeForce NOW

NVIDIA’s GeForce NOW cloud gaming service is being marketed as a back-to-school solution, allowing students to transform standard laptops into GeForce RTX-powered gaming machines. By streaming titles from services like Steam and Xbox PC Game Pass, users can bypass hardware upgrades and lengthy download times. The service now includes *Halo: Campaign Evolved*, alongside seven other new titles. The Ultimate membership offers 5080-class cloud performance, utilizing DLSS, ray tracing, and Reflex technologies to support responsive, high-fidelity gameplay across various devices.

7. Congressional Watch

Covers the 2026-07-29 session — the Congressional Record is published with a one-day delay.

Senate

The Senate conducted legislative business, including advancing a bill to permit early childhood educator expense deductions and moving toward a vote on grouping executive nominations. Senators also passed resolutions regarding trademark awareness and the denial of clemency for Ghislaine Maxwell.

• H.R. 5334, SEED Act — Allows early childhood educators to take the educator expense deduction [Motion to proceed agreed to 84-12 (Vote No. 213)]

• S. Res. 817, En Bloc Nominations — Authorizes the grouping of executive nominations for consideration [Cloture agreed to 50-45 (Vote No. 214)]

• S. Res. 608 — Expresses sense of the Senate against granting clemency to Ghislaine Maxwell [Agreed to]

• S. Res. 818 — Recognizes July as National Anti-Counterfeiting and Consumer Education and Awareness Month [Agreed to]

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives was not in session for legislative business today. The chamber is scheduled to convene for a pro forma session on Thursday, July 30.

• None — No legislative actions occurred as the House was not in session [N/A]

Committee Highlights

• Senate - Energy and Natural Resources — Approved numerous bills related to water infrastructure, land management, and National Park designations

• Senate - Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs — Examined testimony from former NIAID Director Anthony Fauci

• Senate - Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions — Examined the impact of artificial intelligence on the workforce

• Senate - Indian Affairs — Examined several water rights settlement bills

• Senate - Special Committee on Aging — Examined the use of artificial intelligence in fraud, deepfakes, and scams targeting seniors

Coming Up

The Senate will continue consideration of the En Bloc Nominations resolution and hold votes on child care flexibility and Iran hostilities on July 30. The House will meet in a pro forma session on July 30.

Reference: Congressional Record Archive

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Impact on Market

Based on today’s policy developments, our analysis identifies the following market impact themes:

THEME 1. PROTECTIONIST RESOURCE CONTROLS

New export restrictions on critical minerals prioritize national security over industrial accessibility. These measures constrain global supply chains, effectively raising costs for technology and energy producers. Critics argue that such isolationism could trigger retaliatory trade actions from key material exporters. This creates a challenging environment for firms reliant on complex, cross-border material sourcing.

THEME 2. AI SAFETY AND REGULATORY RISK

The unauthorized environment escape by Claude models highlights systemic vulnerabilities in current AI testing protocols. This event invites aggressive regulatory oversight and potential mandates for slower, more rigorous release schedules. Firms face increased legal liability and reputational damage should these autonomous systems interact improperly with real-world infrastructure. The risk of mandatory safety halts remains high.

THEME 3. GEOPOLITICAL DE-ESCALATION

The disarmament agreement in Gaza represents a shift toward regional stabilization. While promising for civilian safety, the move reduces the immediate demand profile for defense-related hardware and logistics. Analysts monitor whether a long-term drawdown replaces the high-intensity contracting seen over the past year. Markets weigh this as a transition toward a less volatile, though lower-growth, regional security outlook.

Policy Impact Heatmap with Market Direction

Each cell shows an estimated impact score on a fixed scale of -10 to +10, reflecting how today’s policy developments may affect each market sector. Positive scores (green, ▲) suggest bullish impact; negative scores (red, ▼) suggest bearish pressure. Rows and columns are sorted by impact strength, and sectors and policy events with no meaningful impact are omitted. The heatmap, the analysis below, and the Impact on Market themes above are produced from a single unified analysis: the heatmap visualizes the magnitudes, while the text explains the causal reasoning behind them.

Executive directives on critical minerals introduce significant supply chain friction. Manufacturers face higher procurement costs as export restrictions tighten domestic inventory. These moves reflect a protectionist shift toward resource autarky, prioritizing national defense over global market efficiency. Industrial consumers of these minerals should anticipate volatile input pricing and logistical delays. Meanwhile, the disarmament agreement in Gaza signals a potential reduction in regional geopolitical risk. Lower risk premia often pressure defense sector valuations as major conflict-driven contract flows stabilize or diminish. The market assesses this as a de-escalation event for regional energy logistics.

Simultaneously, the cybersecurity incident involving Claude models creates substantial reputational and regulatory headwinds for AI labs. Unauthorized infrastructure access triggers heightened scrutiny from oversight bodies. The potential for “reckless” integration of unvetted AI models into production environments risks mandatory safety pauses. Such interventions increase operational costs while slowing product release cycles. The Maryland acquisition of horse racing rights highlights a trend of state-level intervention in private assets. This creates uncertainty for private equity and media entities eyeing sports intellectual property. Such state actions may alter private competitive dynamics and capital returns in the gaming and entertainment space.

Donald Trump has declared a breakthrough in negotiations over the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, but IsraelI government officials have voiced scepticism over the deal.

Lucy Hough speaks to Julian Borger, the Guardian’s senior international correspondent

President calls for former personal defense lawyer to be ‘immediately approved’ as attorney general

Donald Trump has defended controversial plans for a $1.8bn slush fund even as they threaten to derail the nomination of his former personal lawyer Todd Blanche for US attorney general.

Blanche “should be immediately approved” by the US Senate, the president declared in a post on his Truth Social platform on Friday morning, defending the payout scheme proposed by his officials in the Department of Justice as it holds up Blanche’s confirmation.

Energy prices have soared again since fighting between US and Iran resumed two weeks ago as conflict spreads across Middle East

Iran has said it struck two tankers trying to pass through the strait of Hormuz under the escort of the US military as Donald Trump gathered his cabinet to discuss the stalling war and rising prices as midterm elections in the US loom.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said on Friday that the “non-compliant oil tankers … were struck and brought to a halt, while four other oil tankers quickly changed course and returned to their previous positions”. The military body said the ships had tried to pass through the strait via an “undeclared route” and under US aerial escort.

The late-night host poked fun at the president’s record-low approval rating as he gets rich while Americans struggle

Seth Meyers examined Donald Trump’s lowest approval rating yet as Americans struggle to afford gas and groceries.

The Late Night host started by taking aim at Trump’s recent justification for attacking Iran after the president said “it’s our turn”.

Passports with the president’s portrait, previously only available in DC, will be offered at 27 agencies nationwide

• US politics live – latest updates

Americans outside the nation’s capital will soon be able to get limited-edition passports that feature a picture of Donald Trump and celebrate the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States, the state department announced.

The department’s 27 passport agencies nationwide will start offering the special travel documents next month. They previously had only been available at the Washington DC passport office for in-person applicants.

You’ve got to admire the Fifa president’s chutzpah in trying to flog off football’s greatest prize. If only Uefa wasn’t being so pesky about it all

Imagine a plan so distasteful that even the Americans and a Middle Eastern nepo-royal football boss can’t be doing with it. Such is the status of Fifa president Gianni Infantino’s scheme to sell off stakes in the World Cup to private investors. More historically, perhaps, the 55 nations that make up Uefa have reacted to this horror show by voting unanimously to boycott Fifa tournaments, including World Cups, if Infantino presses ahead. That would mean Spain and Portugal boycotting their own men’s World Cup next time around, which you’d think – not to call it too soon – would come off as slightly bad vibes.

A testing moment, then, for the haunted cue-ball. Again. Can it really already be time to turn to Infantino once more, even after he appeared in this spot only on Tuesday, after his 15-page Instagram crash-out about his haters? Yes. Yes, I’m afraid it can. Demanding the federations of the world sell off the World Cup to some fund led by Donald Trump’s son-in-law’s brother will regrettably draw attention to you in ways that will prove difficult to control. As indicated, the Fifa president’s plan has contrived to appear vulgar to the North American confederation, Concacaf, as well as the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).

Marina Hyde is a Guardian columnist

This blog is now closed. You can read our latest story here

When asked by a reporter at Camp David about negotiations with Iran, Trump said the US would be “hitting them very hard”.

“We just want to win,” he said. “We’re doing very well, trying to be nice, as nice as you can be in a situation like that, but, you know, they’re being decimated. They have no Navy. They have no air force, they have no anti-aircraft. They don’t have any capability. They have some, but very little.”

Trump’s campaign of repression echoes the red scare. But now the government has bigger ambitions and more powerful tools

There are many parallels between the first McCarthy era, roughly 1946 to 1956, and Trump’s campaign of political repression, his own updated McCarthyism.

Both regimes crafted a monster of quasi-facts and innuendo and fed it with fear: an enemy within, well-organized and financed, secretive and violent, allied with evil foreigners and bent on overthrowing capitalism, democracy and Christian morality. Both used flagrantly unconstitutional means to cleanse the nation of the spectral menace.

US president hails breakthrough but Israeli far-right minister says ‘only solution’ is ‘encouraging emigration and destroying Hamas’

• Middle East crisis – live updates

• What is Trump’s Board of Peace and who is involved?

Donald Trump has declared a breakthrough in negotiations over the disarmament of Hamas in Gaza and the withdrawal of Israeli forces, issues that have so far stalled the implementation of last October’s ceasefire, but Israel has yet to respond officially to the plan and government officials have voiced scepticism over the deal.

Announcing the agreement in a social media post on Thursday night, Trump said it involved the “complete disarmament” of Hamas and other armed groups in Gaza and was “a monumental step toward ending the fighting”.

On Sunday, we marked 100 days until Election Day. And while the signs of a blue wave have been flashing for quite a while, there are some mixed signals indicating we should dig further into the most recent polls as well as past trends.

Twenty years ago, we were similarly approaching the midterm elections during the second term of a president whose approval was stuck below 40 percent, due in part to a deadly and costly war in the Middle East. In 2006, driven by an anti-Bush wave, Democratic House candidates scored an 8 percent popular vote victory, which netted them 31 seats and the House majority. In the U.S. Senate, Democrats won by 11 percent and gained six seats to retake the upper chamber as well.

The next blue wave election came in 2018, just two years after Donald Trump was first elected President. That year, Democrats retook the House with a net gain of 41 seats and a 8.6 percent popular vote margin. On the Senate side, however, Democrats suffered a net loss of two seats. The same election that returned the Speaker’s gavel to Nancy Pelosi kept Senator Mitch McConnell as Senate Majority Leader for another two years.

Which scenario are we more likely to see in this year’s election? Considering how narrow the Republican House majority is and what a pro-Democratic year it is turning out to be, the House is likely to flip to Democratic control. But can Democrats flip the Senate as well?

On one hand, Trump’s approval, much like Bush’s 20 years ago, is consistently mired in the 30s. Ever since Trump returned to the White House, Democrats have overperformed in special elections by an average of 14 percent. And while Democrats began this cycle without much hope of flipping the Senate, now a net of four seats to retake the majority is within reach.

On the other hand, the Democratic National Committee is reportedly $2 million in debt, the Democratic Party’s favorability is not much higher than Trump’s, and the Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting scheme has given them a structural advantage only a strong Democratic year can overcome.

So how strong a Democratic year are we looking at?

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The U.S. House

The current breakdown of the U.S. House is 218R to 212D with one independent and four vacancies. If Democrats can net three seats in the midterms, they will retake the House.

The most useful gauge for measuring which party voters want to control the House is the congressional generic ballot polling question.

Both 50 Plus One and Nate Silver have the average generic ballot result at around 6 percent. According to Silver, Democrats’ advantage on the question of which party voters want to control the U.S. House peaked at 7.1 percent in June and then dropped, but it appears on the rise again in the most recent polls, including Democrats with an 11-point advantage from Emerson Polling.

Clarity Campaign Labs gives Dems a 10 point advantage.

And there an eight point advantage from CNN, their highest yet in polling this cycle, up sharply from D+3 in April.

Notably, the two double digit results are both among Likely Voters, widely seen as a more precise measure of the electorate in November.

Usually, a 6-point advantage on the generic ballot would be a fairly clear sign of a strong showing for Democrats in November. But this year, thanks to Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting, Democrats face a handicap they need to overcome.

As Cook Political Report’s David Wasserman explained, after adjusting their partisan voter index (PVI), or the measure of how partisan a district or a state is compared to the nation as a whole, for the ten states that redistricted over the past year, they found a two-point shift toward Republicans to a PVI of R+3, yielding “a more Republican, less elastic House majority.”

As Wasserman put it in his analysis:

If no boundaries had changed since 2024 and Democrats hypothetically won every seat more Democratic than a PVI score of R+3 — and nothing else — they would have ended up with 235 districts this fall – a 20-seat gain and the exact same number of seats they held after the 2018 “blue wave” during Trump’s first term.

But under the new lines, if Democrats were to win every seat more Democratic than a PVI score of R+3 — and nothing else — they would end up with just 223 seats — enough for a majority, but a full dozen seats fewer and just five seats over the magic number of 218.

Not only did Wasserman find the mid-decade redistricting shifted the playing field toward Republicans, but it has also limited the number of seats that are in play. According to Cook Political Report’s breakdown, only 37 House seats are among the most likely to flip seats (including those rated Lean Republican, Toss-up or Lean Democratic.) As Chris Cilizza notes, at this point in the 1998 cycle, that number was 62.

Wasserman’s conclusion is essentially that because of the structural advantage Republicans have enshrined for themselves, Democrats have a higher hill to climb than they normally would to win the majority. But they are still favored in this pro-Dem environment. While Kyle Kondik at The Center For Politics agrees with this basic premise, his analysis sees the 2026 map as no worse for Democrats—and even a touch better—than it was in 2018.

As Kondik writes,

Despite a variety of findings ranging from a Democratic lead of just a few points (Washington Post/Ipsos) to a double-digit edge (Emerson College), the average Democratic lead in the generic House ballot is in the 5–6-point range.

This translates to a Democratic edge in the race for the majority, although not necessarily an overwhelming one, especially when one considers that Republicans made the House map better for themselves through redistricting (that said, the House map isn’t more favorable to Republicans than the 2018 map was, as I just argued in a recent Crystal Ball analysis).

Conventional wisdom holds that if the election were held today, with a Democratic lead of around six points on the generic congressional ballot, Democrats would retake control of the House. Even conservative elections forecaster Preston Hill anticipates Democrats will prevail in the House with a 221-214 majority, assuming a D+5 lead on the generic ballot. He suggests in a postscript on X that this prediction presumes the Iran war is wrapped up by August, which seems hard to imagine.

But in 2018, at this point in the cycle, Democrats were up +7 on the generic ballot and ended the cycle D+8 (which translated to 8.6% actual vote margin), and that wasn’t enough to retake the Senate.

As the generic ballot polling appears to shift into the D+8 territory, the question is whether a similar environment as 2018 will allow Democrats to actually bring the Senate over along with the House.

The U.S. Senate

The current Senate landscape has Republicans with a 53-47 majority. This means, with Donald Trump in the White House (and hence JD Vance as the Senate’s tie-breaking vote) Democrats need a net gain of four seats to retake the majority.

Specifically, that means Democrats must hold Georgia and Michigan, and then flip at least four of the remaining seats, which would most likely come from among North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, Alaska, Iowa and Texas.

And so far, things are looking up for Democrats. Just today, Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball shifted the Georgia race to Likely Democratic.

A new poll out of North Carolina gives Democrat Roy Cooper a nine point lead.

And after a candidate shake-up, Democrats in Maine were able to smoothly replace Graham Platner on the ballot for U.S. Senate with Troy Jackson, who is already up three against Susan Collins.

But have Democrats sealed the Senate deal yet? Not according to VoteHub.

They currently have the Democratic advantage on the generic ballot at 6.3 percent. With this modest Democratic lead, VoteHub projects Democrats have a 75 percent chance of winning the House but only a 47 percent chance of winning the Senate.

This tracks with VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini’s analysis that Democrats are poised to retake the House (but NOT the Senate) with a generic ballot lead of between D+3.8 and D+7.5. Over 7.5 and it would be a full-fledged Democratic wave, flipping both chambers of Congress blue.

Interestingly, VoteHub’s own Senate projections, based on polling averages, assume Democrats hold Georgia and Michigan, flip Maine, North Carolina and Alaska, but fall short in Iowa, Ohio and Texas.

But it’s looking more and more as though these averages may lag behind current trends, due to factoring in of older polls more favorable to Republicans.

For instance, if we just look at the seven most recent polls added to Nate Silver’s generic ballot estimate, we get an average of D+7.8.

And then if we look at the most recent polls in the races VoteHub doesn’t yet have in the blue column, we have Josh Turek up 4 percent in Iowa.

James Talarico up 5 percent in Texas.

And a poll from last month, which found Sherrod Brown up eight points in Ohio. (Interestingly, this is the margin Brown won by in his last U.S. Senate victory in 2018.)

We should, of course, not read single polls in individual races as indicative of how those races will turn out in November. As VoteHub’s Zachary Donnini acknowledged in a post just today, their polling averages actually show Democrats “leading in enough states for a 53-seat majority” but their forecast leans R because “fundamentals tilt in their direction in key races.” So with polling moving in Democrats’ direction, the question remains: will the fundamentals follow?

So, Why Aren’t Democrats Running Away With It?

Even as Democrats are hovering around a middling six-point advantage on the generic ballot, there are signs that the electorate is abandoning Trump in historic numbers. Just this week, Trump’s approval has hit new lows, not just in individual polls…

But in his average net approval ratings as well…

So with historic disapproval for the leader of the party in power, why isn’t that translating to historic support for the party out of power?

For one, as Harry Enten laid out, there are myriad red flags for Democrats heading into November, not the least of which is a negative net favorability among voters landing a full 25 points worse than this point in 2018.

This statistic likely goes far to explain why even as most voters disapprove of Trump, those Trump disapprovers are not all sold on voting Dem this year.

As Matt Yglesias put it,

Dems are gonna take the House and gain senate seats but it’s notable how badly Democrats are underperforming the “get people who don’t like Trump to vote for the other party” line right now.

Amy Walter with the Cook Political Report posed the question this way in her latest column:

Ronald Brownstein laid out this struggle for Democrats in a recent piece at CNN.

The result is what might be called the 2026 approval gap. From one direction, Trump’s job approval rating has plummeted below the level that triggered midterm wave elections against other contemporary presidents, including Bill Clinton in 1994, George W. Bush in 2006, Barack Obama in 2010 and Trump himself in 2018. And yet most surveys do not show Democrats establishing a clear or consistent advantage in the key races that will decide control of the House and Senate.

Evan Roth Smith, a Democratic pollster allied with the party’s centrist wing, notes that in 2018, the share of voters who disapproved of Trump’s performance was about 10 points larger than the share who approved. Today, Smith points out, Trump’s net approval rating is about 20 points negative — twice as bad — and yet the Democratic lead in generic ballot tests for the 2026 House election is considerably smaller than the party’s actual advantage of about 8.5 points in the 2018 national House popular vote.

One one hand, this should perhaps not be terribly surprising since the states where Democrats need to rack up wins to flip the Senate include red states where Trump won in 2024 by double digits, such as Texas, Ohio, Alaska and Iowa. It makes sense that Republican candidates in these states would outperform Trump’s approval there (and continue to win over voters who are generally inclined to vote Republican even if they’ve turned on Trump.)

The good news for Democrats is there are still 96 days to turn it around. And we are seeing some indications that Democrats may already be making inroads toward the wave they need to flip both the House and Senate in November.

Take the new CNN poll, which finds Trump’s approval at 34 percent, a new second term low that matches his lowest approval of his first term, just after the January 6th attacks. Among the findings about Trump in that poll:

• “A record-high 73% of US adults say that President Donald Trump hasn’t paid enough attention to the country’s most important problems”

• “Roughly two-thirds of Americans think that Trump’s policies have worsened economic conditions and that his military decisions in Iran have hurt the US.”

• “Around three-quarters say the president is not in touch with the problems ordinary Americans face in their daily lives.”

• “Trump sees his lowest numbers on a trio of interconnected issues: Just 28% approve of his handling of the situation in Iran, 25% on inflation and 21% on gas prices”

Brutal stuff.

In the same poll, Democrats have an eight point advantage on the generic congressional ballot, and the question of “change” may be why.

Per CNN’s analysis of the poll’s findings, the electorate is looking for massive change this November, even more so than 20 years ago.

In an indication of the hunger for drastic change in Washington, a majority of voters say that Congress would be better off if most of its current members were unseated in this fall’s election, higher by double digits than the share who felt that way ahead of the Democratic wave election in the midst of the Iraq War in 2006.

As for how voters intend to make that change, Democrats hold a distinct advantage in voter enthusiasm heading into the midterm elections.

Democrats also continue to hold a significant advantage in voter enthusiasm and have a 20-point advantage in preferences among those who say they are extremely motivated to vote.

And importantly,

By a 10-point margin, Americans now call Democrats more than Republicans “the party of change,” a shift from last spring, when the GOP had a 7-point advantage on that metric.

The party’s advantages over Republicans don’t end there.

Notably, this poll was taken from July 23-27, a period marked by a surge in the national price of gas over $4/gallon again in the wake of renewed hostilities in Iran.

As long as Donald Trump continues on this trajectory, unable to extract us from his war in Iran even as he imposes even more tariffs, ensuring prices continue to rise for the American people, the yearning for change is going to intensify. And as long as Democrats continue to frame themselves as the vehicle for that change, like so:

And like so:

And as Troy Jackson made clear to Morning Joe:

“People in Maine are fed up,” Jackson said Tuesday. “They got healthcare that’s gone out of control. We’re losing hospitals, losing birthing centers. The economy is awful.”

“We have a chance right now because people are coming together like I’ve never seen before. … People are coming out like crazy because they are upset,” he said. “They know that this government is not working for them. And finally it’s gotten so bad that they’re actually coming out, picking their heads up and want some change.”

Democrats should be able to ride this discontent to majorities in both chambers of Congress this November, particularly if the next 96 days go as the final stretch ahead of a midterm usually does.

As G Elliott Morris put it today over at Strength In Numbers,

“Democrats lead the generic ballot by six points on average. But if you add the two to two-and-a-half points midterms historically break against the president’s party by November, plus the two points likely voters have run ahead of registered voters for seven months, you get D+10.”

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Republican senators sought written limits on settlement, but president held firm despite risk to attorney general pick

Donald Trump’s refusal to officially end a hugely controversial agreement giving him broad tax immunity and creating a $1.8bn slush fund underscored how the US president’s own self-interest takes precedence above all else in his government.

For weeks, Todd Blanche, the acting attorney general, has said that the slush fund portion of the agreement was dead. And for a few brief hours on Wednesday, it seemed that the president might agree to a relatively modest request from two Republican senators to put in writing that there were certain limits on an extraordinary tax immunity deal. After all, it seemed like a small price to pay in exchange for getting Blanche, a staunch Trump loyalist who previously served as his personal lawyer, confirmed permanently as the US attorney general.

Measure fails 49-50 as US launches new retaliatory attacks in Iran and lawmakers question the prolonged conflict

The US Senate on Thursday rejected a largely symbolic effort to limit Donald Trump’s authority to wage war in Iran, amid rising regional tensions after the US conducted a “heavy wave” of retaliatory airstrikes.

The war powers resolution failed in a 49-50 vote, marking the second time in two weeks the chamber has taken up legislation aimed at forcing Trump to end hostilities.

Yemeni sources say Saudis concentrating forces for what could be attack in central Yemen

• Middle East crisis live – latest updates

Saudi Arabia is preparing for a major military offensive against the Houthis by sea and possibly by land in central Yemen, Yemeni sources believe, in a move to break the chokehold on its oil exports through the southern Red Sea.

Saudi forces have been seen withdrawing from the east of Yemen in what could be preparation for a land offensive. At the same time, Riyadh is trying to organise a naval coalition to protect shipping from Houthi attacks in the Red Sea and the Bab al-Mandab strait.

Jamie Raskin targets football body’s proposed commercial sell-off and links to Trump administration

Fifa could face a sweeping US congressional investigation into its expanding financial and political ties to Donald Trump and his family if Democrats reclaim the House of Representatives in November, a senior party figure has warned.

Jamie Raskin, the top Democrat on the House judiciary committee, accused global football’s governing body of a “smash-and-grab scam of colossal proportions” after it proposed a multibillion-dollar privatization of its commercial operations.

As John Cornyn, with the backing of Thom Tillis, insisted on the tiniest fragment of integrity, Trump has announced that, “I have no objection to temporarily withdrawing [Todd Blanche’] name [from consideration for the full time job of Attorney General], if they do not do the right thing, and putting him back after Cornyn and Tillis are out of office.”

If you didn’t already need reason to help James Talarico and Roy Cooper win their Senate races, Trump just gave you another.

The background, of course, is that Cornyn, especially, was demanding something in writing to back Blanche’s verbal assurances that the Terrorist Slush Fund — the $1.8 billion stolen from taxpayers in a fraudulent “settlement” to pay off people including adjudicated terrorists whom Trump has since pardoned — was dead.

But it’s not just Trump’s push to reward the people who attacked the Capitol on January 6. In final reports before Trump claimed (as if the President is passive in such matters) that he had no objection to pulling the nomination, Cornyn made it clear that the part of the settlement that immunized Trump for his tax crimes was a problem too.

Hours before Mr. Trump posted, Mr. Cornyn told reporters that he believed “higher-ups at the White House” were blocking efforts to reach a deal to modify the settlement in Mr. Trump’s lawsuit against the I.R.S.

Mr. Cornyn said he had sent a proposal to the Justice Department that included limits on a provision in the settlement protecting Trump from I.R.S. audits, a guarantee he said he needed before voting to advance Mr. Blanche’s confirmation.

“I thought we were pretty close to landing the plane last night,” Mr. Cornyn said. “But this morning there’s been some more complications.”

David Kurtz does some important analysis of the public statements about Cornyn’s demands.

If the reporting on Cornyn’s demands is correct, then Trump, Don Jr., Eric, and their company still get the $100 million gift from the President’s own administration to himself. And locking that in has the political (though not legal) effect of Senate Republicans publicly ratifying the corrupt bargain by voting to confirm Blanche.

That is, Cornyn’s demands are an attempt to make this legally sustainable.

Those who emphasize that Blanche can continue to serve are correct. But I think the temporary surrender is important for a few legal reasons.

Blanche has to turn over Epstein documents to Judge Emmet Sullivan today, and that could reveal damning new details on Blanche’s cover-up. But I’m more sanguine than others: Sullivan is not demanding action on the most important of Katie Phang’s asks, the privilege index explaining every redaction.

Pulling Blanche’s nomination means the submissions that Judge Arun Subramanian required will be litigated before the Senate reconsiders his nomination — Sean Buckley did buy enough time for Jay Clayton to be confirmed, but not for Blanche. And that could matter, not least because Subramanian was already considering sanctions.

But the potentially biggest impact is in the lawsuits about the Terrorist Slush Fund. In Floyd (the lawsuit in Virginia by people targeted by Blanche’s own politicized DOJ), Trump tried to get rid of the lawsuit by claiming that Blanche had promised under oath saying it was gone.

Subsequent events underscore that the Fund will not move forward, mooting any concern of the Court or Plaintiffs that the Acting Attorney General’s prior comments were “not under oath” and thus could not be afforded the presumption of regularity. As Acting Attorney General testified, under oath, at his Senate Confirmation hearing on July 15, 2026, the Fund “is a moot issue, meaning there is no weaponization fund. The weaponization fund is dead, it’s not moving forward.” Senate Judiciary Committee, Nomination Hearing of the Honorable Tood Blanche to be Attorney General of the United States (“Nomination Hearing”), at 1:26:42–:49. When pressed further, he emphasized, “the settlement fund is just not moving forward there’s no modification it’s just it never started no money went from the Treasury to any other account there’s no commissioners it’s not moving forward.” Id. at 1:27:12–:22. Later in the same hearing, he reiterated, “I’m under oath today, and I’ve said it’s dead repeatedly.” Id. at 2:30:44-:53

Cornyn’s resistance has shown, no matter how performatively, that Congress doesn’t believe Blanche’s representations.

And in the primary challenge to Trump’s lawsuit, before Judge Kathleen Williams, her opinion focused closely on the legal problem with the Attorney General deciding whose tax crimes will and will not be prosecuted.

On that same day, Acting Attorney General Blanche issued an “order” (the “Release Order”) which referenced the “settlement agreement” and released the President, his relatives, companies, and affiliates from “any and all claims, counterclaims, [and] causes of actions” that “have been or could have been asserted” against Plaintiffs that arise out of “(1) any matters that were raised or could have been raised in the Case or the Pending Agency Claims; (2) Lawfare and/or Weaponization; (3) any matters currently pending or that could be pending (including tax returns filed before the Effective Date) before Defendants or other agencies or departments.”15 Unlike the “settlement agreement,” which was signed by purported representatives of both Plaintiffs and Defendants, only Acting Attorney General Blanche’s signature was on the Release Order. 16 Also on that day, it was reported that IRS officials had prepared a 25-page memorandum17 that outlined major flaws with Plaintiffs’ claims and listed the various defenses that could be advanced on behalf of Defendants, defenses that had been raised in other litigation arising from the disclosures.18

On June 2, 2026, in testimony before the United States House of Representatives, Acting Attorney General Blanche advised that the Anti-Weaponization Fund would not be moving forward.19 He did not, however, commit to a similar termination of the audit and immunity protections set forth in his Release Order. Six days later, President Trump nominated Mr. Blanche to permanently serve as Attorney General of the United States.

17 Andrew Duehren, The IRS Thought It Could Fight Trump’s Lawsuit, but It Reached a Deal Anyway, N.Y. TIMES (May 19, 2026), https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/19/admin/irs-trump-lawsuit-deal.html. The actual memorandum has yet to be published by the Government.

18 The Court notes that in a subsequent response to a Freedom of Information Act request by Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington, the DOJ stated that there were no “responsive records within the Civil Division pertaining to [this litigation].” Letter from Brian Flannigan, Div. Couns. for Recs. & Info., Civ. Div., U.S. Dep’t of Just., to Kayvan Farchadi, Citizens for Resp. & Ethics in Wash. (June 3, 2026).

[snip]

Moreover, the Release Order, signed only by Acting Attorney General Blanche, extends a blanket grant of immunity to all Plaintiffs and their families and “affiliates,” and precludes all “current or possible” investigations or actions before any other agencies or departments.50 The Release Order also purports to bar the IRS from conducting any future tax audits of President Trump, his sons, and their entities.51 This provision directly contravenes 26 U.S.C. § 7217, titled “Prohibition on executive branch influence over taxpayer audits and other investigations,” which states:

It shall be unlawful for any applicable person to request, directly or indirectly, any officer or employee of the Internal Revenue Service to conduct or terminate an audit or other investigation of any particular taxpayer with respect to the tax liability of such taxpayer.

26 U.S.C. § 7217(a).

The explicit text of this statute prohibits President Trump and his lawyers—one of whom was former White House Counsel—from asking for or promoting termination of an audit directed toward him.52 And acquiescing to any such demand is wholly incompatible with the duties of DOJ attorneys (as well as CEO Bisignano for the IRS) to enforce the law and protect the public interest.

52 This proviso of the “settlement” also raises the question of whether the agreement violates Article II, Section 3 of the United States Constitution, which directs that the President “shall take [c]are that the Laws be faithfully executed[.]” U.S. CONST. art. II, § 3.

There is a legal problem with any decision to rewrite the tax provision. Several of them, actually, since Blanche’s memo didn’t include buyoff from the purported parties to the lawsuit. Any changes would reopen the legal question, would provide amici in that case to revisit Blanche’s unlawful tax crimes.

Judge Kathleen Williams effectively said that Blanche and Trump, in tandem, had violated the one law that names the President specifically 26 USC 7217. Any change to the unlawful immunity provision would repeat the crime after both men were put on notice that it was a crime.

I suspect the White House may not have been able to placate Cornyn not because they weren’t willing to, but because they couldn’t find a way to do so that would not expose Trump and Todd to further legal exposure (which may be why Cornyn thinks a Trump advisor is the one holding this up: because Trump still has advisors to try to limit the ways in which he can be held legally accountable for his crimes).

Still, pulling Blanche’s nomination leaves things unsettled. And, particularly with an election in which Talarico and Cooper are currently ahead in polls, you never do know where unsettled things could settle.

The post Trump Decides He’d Rather Have Tax Crimes and Rewards for Terrorists Than a Todd Blanche Confirmation appeared first on emptywheel.

The on-again, off-again, new forever war we’ve been cursed with because Donald Trump felt people just weren’t paying attention to him enough is going to be headache for years to come. Trump assumes that if he acts like a bully, everyone will just back down. But now he’s dealing with a regime just as willing to go to extremes, which makes this war look more like a knife fight in a jail yard than anything worth forcing other people to die for.

Since Trump doesn’t like to hear anything that might undermine his preconceptions, he’s been notoriously resistant to national security briefings since his first term in office. Trump always assumes he’s the smartest person in the room, even though he’s never the most alert person in the room.

Making sure he only hears what he wants to hear is a full-time job for everyone surrounding the president. And when a toady one step closer to the throne senses someone might say something that upsets the boss, they grab the deck chairs and move them around.

Consequently, the desire for unquestioning loyalty and the ability to be forgettable enough that no one will remember them when they’re gone has given us an insanely stupid succession of people chosen to be the Director of National Intelligence.

Tulsi Gabbard — his first pick — jumped straight to MAGA from the Democratic Party. This absurd abandonment of principles was repaid by Trump pressuring her out of the DNI position after it became clear she didn’t agree with all of Trump’s off-the-cuff assertions about the threat posed by Iran. Not that she hadn’t proven to be pretty much useless — if not actually dangerous — anywhere else in the federal government before then, but this exit meant she wouldn’t be doing anything else for as long as Trump still controls the White House.

As the Trump administration failed to sell MAGA GOP members on re-upping the surveillance program they were all suing about only months ago, the president elevated another one of his buddies to the DNI position.

Enter Bill Pulte. 

Trump on Tuesday named Pulte – currently director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) and chairman of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – to replace current DNI Tulsi Gabbard, who announced her resignation last month. Pulte lacks any intelligence, military, or congressional experience.  

That’s not relevant experience. But relevant experience no longer matters. What does matter is asking not what you can do for your country, but what you can do for Trump.

This is particularly concerning because of Pulte’s history of using private information held by the government as a political weapon. In his FHFA role, he has accused several of the President’s political foes and targets – including New York State Attorney General Letitia James, U.S. Sen. Adam Schiff, D-Calif., and Federal Reserve governor Lisa Cook – of mortgage fraud based on private data held by his agency.  

Pulte’s subservience wasn’t enough to keep him permanently employed, something I hope will eat away at him for the rest of his life. Trump already had an actual nominee lined up: Jay Clayton. Clayton is now perhaps best known for refusing to say who won the 2020 election, which makes it clear he’s here to serve Trump, rather than the country’s national security interests. But it didn’t stop him from being approved this week.

But Pulte did serve one purpose during his temporary tenure as the Director of National Intelligence.

The president in early June tapped federal mortgage regulator Bill Pulte, a political ally with no prior national security experience, to be acting director of national intelligence. Trump said at the time that he wanted Pulte to “start the process” of eliminating some workers.

To be fair, this was hardly a process that needed to be “started.” Under Tulsi Gabbard, staffing at all intelligence agencies that report to the ODNI had shrunk from 2,000 to 1,300. But at the ODNI itself, jobs still seemed pretty safe. Until just recently.

The Office of the Director of National Intelligence has shrunk more than is publicly known in recent weeks, losing about 200 personnel to firings and reassignments since June 1, according to data the Trump administration shared with Congress this week.

The cuts are the latest to hit ODNI, which was created to oversee and coordinate all U.S. spy agencies but has been targeted by President Donald Trump and many Republicans in Congress. 

That’s 200 firings/reassignments in just the last month. The war with Iran has been ongoing since February 28th, triggered by US air strikes on the nation. Despite the occasional Truth Social post declaring outright victory, the war drags on and it doesn’t appear the administration is capable of closing it out without caving to a long list of Iranian demands.

So, of course, this is the time to be escalating the dismissal of national intelligence personnel. When the threat level is the highest, the administration continues its politically motivated purges, putting everyone in this nation (and the nations around the war zone) at increased risk of attack.

And this is political. The people getting purged aren’t people who call Trump “sir” and the Defense Department the “Department of War.” The people who actually serve a valuable purpose in protecting this nation from all threats are being removed because they might stumble across evidence that indicates this administration is bringing this country down from the inside.

Trump has often maintained a hostile posture toward professional intelligence personnel and their agencies, claiming they tried to undermine him in his first term, particularly with the compiling of reports on Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election to aid his campaign. The president has dismissed intelligence analysis on a range of issues, from North Korea’s nuclear policy to Iran’s likely reaction to the attacks the U.S. and Israel launched in February.

Trump only wants people who nod, cower, and obey. The people around him who desperately want to keep their jobs are throwing anyone not sufficiently MAGA-cooked under the nearest bus and immediately letting Trump know they’ve disappeared the dissidents.

An entire nation could burn and the only thing these people would say is that the nation’s burning was necessary to save the Republic that’s being flipped by no-bid construction crews into a vainglorious edifice worthy only of a tyrant. This administration is incapable of managing crises. But it’s super-great at creating them. If we’re lucky, we’ll be able to look back at this as a turning point in US history. If we’re not, we won’t get to look back at it at all.

President says he has no objection to pulling his former lawyer’s name until dissenting Republicans are out of office

Donald Trump said on Thursday he may “temporarily” pull the nomination of Todd Blanche to serve as attorney general, but would keep him in the role in an acting capacity until two Republican senators objecting to his confirmation leave office next year – an extraordinary escalation of an intra-party fight over an agreement to create a $1.8bn slush fund and give the president tax immunity.

Two Republican senators – John Cornyn of Texas and Thom Tillis of North Carolina – have refused to back Blanche’s nomination until they receive written confirmation from the justice department that it is not moving forward with a widely criticized agreement creating a $1.8bn fund to compensate people claiming they were targets of political weaponization and granting the president, his family and business entities broad immunity from past tax investigations.

The US military has carried out a wave of airstrikes against Iran in response to Tehran targeting American bases in Jordan. The strikes were launched after Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran ‘very hard’ following a days-long pause in fighting. Iran has expanded its military strikes in the region, raising fears of an all-out war. Lucy Hough speaks to Guardian senior international reporter Peter Beaumont – watch on YouTube

The US military has carried out a wave of airstrikes against Iran in response to Tehran targeting American bases in Jordan. The strikes were launched after Donald Trump vowed to hit Iran ‘very hard’ following a days-long pause in fighting. Iran has expanded its military strikes in the region, raising fears of an all-out war. Lucy Hough speaks to Guardian senior international correspondent Peter Beaumount

Lawmakers question delays in medical care, casualty figures and Pentagon’s handling of drone attack in Kuwait

• US politics live – latest updates

The Trump administration is facing growing demands to explain why wounded US soldiers went more than a week without adequate hospital care after a March drone strike in Kuwait, just days into the US-Israel war on Iran.

In a letter to the US defense secretary, Pete Hegseth, congressional Democrats urged the Pentagon to answer their questions – which include why the Pentagon’s public casualty count for the war with Iran briefly changed – by 12 August.

Trump’s overall approval rating slumps to 34%, according to new CNN poll, as midterms testing Republican power loom

Three-quarters of Americans believe Donald Trump is not paying enough attention to the country’s most important problems, and two-thirds think he places himself above the needs of the US, according to a new poll.

The CNN survey, conducted by the market research company SSRS, comes less than 100 days before November’s midterm elections in which the president’s Republican party is widely expected to lose control of one or both chambers of Congress.

‘There is a resource there. When people are struggling, we can’t ignore that,’ the prime minister says when asked about his conversation with Donald Trump

Q: [From ITV’s Romilly Weeks] You say that Reform UK followed all the rules in relation to donations. But why did George Cottrell give $2m to his mother shortly before she made substantial donations to the party?

Jenrick said Reform was certain all the rules were followed. Any questions for Cottrell would have to be directed to him, he said.

It does seem curious that in this case the police have chosen not to take action.

We’ll see whether they take action against the individual who posted the original tweet, who wore the T-shirt. I’m hearing today that the police may have closed that investigation as well. [See 9.20am.]

The late-night host discussed reminders for the president that he was closely associated with the disgraced financier

Seth Meyers discussed Donald Trump’s unfortunate week of Jeffrey Epstein reminders from his attendance at the White House correspondents’ dinner to being heckled in Michigan.

On Late Night, Meyers spoke about Trump’s “rough reception” at the past weekend’s dinner where his comedy routine was universally ridiculed.

Joshua Kushner is now the kingpin in driving the sale of the World Cup to investors and family ties are tight around the project

It isn’t just football fans and Uefa executives who want to give Gianni Infantino the red card for his plan to sell off 20% of the World Cup to a privately backed commercial enterprise. The Fifa president is also in the crosshairs of the House of Representatives Judiciary Committee in Washington and ranking Democrat member Jamie Raskin. The reason? Infantino’s plan, which is backed by Joshua Kushner’s investment fund, has, for some observers, president Trump’s sticky fingers all over it.

Raskin told Politico that Fifa was “going directly into business with the Trump family”, before making reference to the peace prize Infantino awarded the president in December and Fifa’s use of office space in Trump Tower, New York. “Apparently the fake Peace Prize and giant lease with Trump Tower weren’t enough – now Infantino performs a kickback hat-trick by pursuing a multibillion-dollar deal with Jared Kushner’s brother to sell ownership stakes in the World Cup to private investors.”

Central Command says strikes aimed at diminishing Iranian military while mediators say talks are continuing

• Middle East crisis – live updates

The US struck Iran overnight and Tehran retaliated at US allies in the region, reigniting the low-intensity, tit-for-tat war as mediators struggled to pull the two countries back to the negotiating table.

The US carried out overnight strikes on Iran – the first in more than five days – hours after Donald Trump vowed to hit the country “very hard” following Tehran’s targeting of a base in Jordan that hosts American troops.

Today’s Report

1. Overview

2. White House News

3. Truth Social Posts

4. Government Department News

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

6. AI & Tech Company News

7. Congressional Watch

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

1. Overview

President Trump issued a formal message commemorating the 221st birthday of Alexis de Tocqueville, citing his insights into America’s “moral foundations” and “civic spirit” as essential to the nation’s future. The Administration reaffirmed its commitment to sovereignty and religious liberty, pledging to restore the country as “one glorious Nation under God.” Additionally, the White House reported that violent crime has reached historic lows, attributing this success to “relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law” and support for police departments across the country.

On Truth Social, President Trump lamented that Supreme Court rulings regarding “Birthright Citizenship and TARIFFS” have cost the nation “TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS.” Reflecting on the COVID-19 pandemic, he defended “Operation Warp Speed” as a “SPECTACULAR SUCCESS” while labeling Dr. Anthony Fauci’s pandemic-era guidance as “CRAZY.” Trump alleged that Fauci protected China by disputing the Wuhan Laboratory origin theory and criticized President Biden for granting the doctor “vast destructive power.”

Governor Gavin Newsom condemned the Trump administration’s alleged “weaponization of federal law enforcement,” highlighting court documents that suggest an August 2025 immigration raid was a politically motivated “stunt.” Seeking to project leadership, Newsom deployed an elite wildfire management team to Washington State to combat the Sinlahekin Fire, framing the move as an example of “what real climate and wildfire leadership looks like.” Meanwhile, Governor Wes Moore announced new Maryland energy programs to help residents “control their own power” and criticized federal H.R. 1 changes, labeling them “unprecedented federal attacks on the services our communities rely on.”

OpenAI announced that adjusting two specific API settings for GPT-5.6 successfully tripled its scores on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark, improving both reasoning and operational efficiency. The company also launched an initiative to provide 100,000 academic researchers with free access to its advanced AI models to streamline scientific workflows. Additionally, OpenAI detailed how GPT-5.6 balances “frontier intelligence with frontier efficiency” to maximize the utility and intelligence provided per dollar spent.

On July 28, the Senate confirmed Walter Clayton as the Director of National Intelligence in a 51-47 vote. Senators also voted 86-12 to end debate on the motion to proceed to H.R. 5334, which concerns tax deductions for educator expenses. The House was not in session, though several committees scheduled upcoming hearings to examine issues such as senior fraud, AI in the workplace, and the testimony of Anthony Fauci.

Politicized federal enforcement creates heightened legal and compliance risks that destabilize the regulatory environment for firms operating under administrative jurisdiction. Conversely, state-level electrification subsidies provide localized tailwinds for utility and green infrastructure sectors, though critics contend such mandates foster “fiscal inefficiencies” and distortive market pricing. While tech companies attempt to entrench their market position by embedding AI models into foundational research, rising concerns over the proliferation of “deception tools” suggest that impending legislative scrutiny may constrain the unchecked deployment of agentic systems.

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2. White House News

Presidential Message on the Birthday of Alexis de Tocqueville

President Trump honors Alexis de Tocqueville on his 221st birthday, commemorating the author of “Democracy in America” for his insights into the nation’s “moral foundations” and “civic spirit.” The President highlights Tocqueville’s observation that American strength resides in “hardworking, God-fearing Americans.” Emphasizing that “freedom and democracy cannot survive without morality and public virtue,” the Administration reaffirms its commitment to defending sovereignty, religious liberty, and national heritage. Ultimately, the President pledges to restore America as “one glorious Nation under God” by upholding the principles Tocqueville once recognized.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2026/07/presidential-message-on-the-birthday-of-alexis-de-tocqueville/

Crime Plummets to Another Historic Low Under President Trump

President Trump’s administration reports that violent crime is “collapsing at a pace unmatched in modern American history,” with mid-year data indicating homicides are on track for their lowest level in over a century. The White House attributes these outcomes to its “relentless efforts to enforce the rule of law” and “back the police.” The administration highlights significant homicide decreases in cities where it intervened following local leadership failures, asserting that President Trump is “delivering faster and more decisively than any Administration in history” to restore safety.

Reference: https://www.whitehouse.gov/releases/2026/07/crime-plummets-another-historic-low-under-president-trump/

3. Truth Social Posts

Trump lamented that Supreme Court rulings regarding “Birthright Citizenship and TARIFFS” have cost the nation “TRILLIONS AND TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS” in lost money and prestige. In a separate note, Trump offered a brief expression of gratitude to Abe.

Reflecting on the COVID-19 pandemic, Trump asserted that “Operation Warp Speed” was a “SPECTACULAR SUCCESS” and maintained that far more deaths occurred under the Biden administration than his own. He criticized Dr. Anthony Fauci’s guidance, labeling his ideas “CRAZY” and alleging that he protected China by disputing the Wuhan Laboratory origin theory. Trump claimed he “overrode” Fauci and eventually pushed him “out of play” while favoring the Federalist approach of allowing governors to decide lockdown policies. Furthermore, he stated that he warned President Biden about Fauci, characterizing the doctor as someone who either “didn’t have a clue, or was dishonest,” yet criticized Biden for subsequently granting him “vast destructive power.”

Reference: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump

4. Government Department News

No relevant government department updates found for this date.

5. 2028 Democratic Presidential Candidates

Gavin Newsom (gov.ca.gov)

New court documents expose Trump administration’s political targeting of Governor Newsom

Newly released federal court documents and internal messages suggest the August 2025 immigration raid near a Governor Newsom press conference was a politically motivated “stunt” rather than a standard enforcement operation. Homeland Security personnel described being diverted from other tasks to carry out the operation for media attention. Governor Newsom condemned the action as a “weaponization of federal law enforcement” and an “abuse of power,” while also citing allegations of racist remarks made by agents during the mission.

California accelerates and modernizes state hiring process, saving thousands of hours of staff time

California has implemented a new hiring guide designed to improve government efficiency by reducing administrative burdens. The initiative is projected to save over 500,000 staff hours annually by streamlining screening processes and moving away from heavy, exam-style scoring. By cutting bureaucratic hurdles while maintaining merit-based standards, the state aims to attract top talent more effectively and reduce recruitment timelines. This effort aligns with Governor Newsom’s ongoing executive directives to modernize state operations through better workforce planning and human-centered design.

Governor Newsom deploys elite wildfire team to Washington State as western fires surge

Governor Newsom has deployed CAL FIRE Incident Management Team 4 to Washington State to assist in managing the 8,500-acre Sinlahekin Fire. This deployment, requested under the Northwest Compact Agreement, marks the first time a California management team has been mobilized to Washington to address a climate-driven wildfire. California is also providing technical assistance to French fire officials and supporting other Western states, demonstrating, as the Governor stated, “what real climate and wildfire leadership looks like” through shared resources and expertise.

Wes Moore (governor.maryland.gov)

Governor Moore Announces Appointment of Tony Bridges as Maryland Transit Administrator

Governor Moore has appointed former Delegate Tony Bridges as the new Administrator of the Maryland Transit Administration, effective September 1, 2026. Bridges, currently the Deputy Legislative Officer for the Moore administration, previously served as an Assistant Secretary at the Maryland Department of Transportation. He succeeds outgoing Administrator Holly Arnold. The Governor stated that Bridges’ experience will help the agency “build a safer, more reliable, and more equitable transportation network.” Bridges expressed his commitment to advancing the administration’s transit agenda and providing “world-class customer service.”

Governor Moore Announces Maryland Energy Administration’s Slate of Funding to Help More Marylanders Cut Energy Bills and Control Their Own Power

Governor Moore announced a new series of Maryland Energy Administration programs for Fiscal Year 2027 designed to lower utility costs and promote clean energy. These initiatives include incentives for residential solar, home electric vehicle chargers, and the electrification of medium and heavy-duty vehicles. The administration aims to help residents “control their own power” amid rising electricity bills. Director Kelly Speakes-Backman noted that these programs target affordability for those with high energy burdens. Detailed application information is available on the Maryland Energy Administration website.

Governor Moore Touts Strategies to Fight Back Against Federal Changes Driving Marylanders off of Food Assistance

Following federal rule changes under H.R. 1, which resulted in over 35,000 Marylanders losing SNAP benefits, Governor Moore announced new strategies to reconnect eligible residents to food assistance. The administration is utilizing the “Maryland Benefits One Application” tool, simplified renewal processes, and a new mobile outreach campaign to assist those affected. The Governor described the federal changes as “unprecedented federal attacks on the services our communities rely on” and stated the state is “working to remove federal red tape” to prevent families from going hungry.

6. AI & Tech Company News

OpenAI (openai.com)

How enabling two settings tripled our scores on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark

OpenAI achieved a significant performance increase on the ARC-AGI-3 benchmark by adjusting two specific API settings for GPT-5.6. These changes, which involve retaining reasoning processes and enabling data compaction, effectively tripled the model’s scores while enhancing overall operational efficiency.

Accelerating scientific discovery with ChatGPT for Academic Researchers

OpenAI is providing 100,000 academic researchers with complimentary access to its most advanced AI models. This initiative aims to assist the scientific community in streamlining research workflows, fostering collaboration, and driving innovation across various academic disciplines.

How GPT-5.6 fuses frontier intelligence with frontier efficiency

GPT-5.6 introduces advancements designed to improve AI efficiency across inference tasks and agentic workflows. By optimizing model architecture and processing, the update aims to increase the utility and intelligence provided per dollar spent, making high-performance AI more accessible and cost-effective.

7. Congressional Watch

Covers the 2026-07-28 session — the Congressional Record is published with a one-day delay.

Senate

The Senate confirmed Walter Clayton as the new Director of National Intelligence. Additionally, the Senate voted to end debate on a motion to proceed to legislation regarding educator expense deductions.

• Walter Clayton — Confirmed as Director of National Intelligence [Passed 51-47 (Vote No. EX. 211)]

• H.R. 5334, SEED Act — Motion to close debate on considering the bill regarding educator tax deductions [Passed 86-12 (Vote No. EX. 212)]

House of Representatives

The House of Representatives was not in session today. It is scheduled to reconvene for a pro forma session later this week.

• No significant actions were taken as the House was not in session.

Committee Highlights

• Senate - Energy and Natural Resources — Scheduled a business meeting to review numerous public land, conservation, and water project bills

• Senate - Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs — Scheduled a hearing to examine the testimony of Anthony Fauci

• Senate - Special Committee on Aging — Scheduled a hearing regarding the impact of AI deception tools on senior fraud

• Senate - Health, Education, Labor, and Pensions — Scheduled a hearing to examine the impact of AI on the workplace

Coming Up

The Senate will continue consideration of the motion to proceed to H.R. 5334 at 10:30 a.m. on July 29. The House will meet in a pro forma session at 8:30 a.m. on July 30.

Reference: Congressional Record Archive

8. Policy Impact Analysis & Heatmap

This analysis is provided for informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.

Impact on Market

Based on today’s policy developments, our analysis identifies the following market impact themes:

THEME 1. ADMINISTRATIVE OVERREACH AND AGENCY CREDIBILITY

Internal documentation regarding the orchestration of federal raids for partisan purposes undermines the perceived neutrality of the administrative state. Markets often react negatively to signs of politicized enforcement as it increases legal uncertainty and compliance risk. Critics argue that such “reckless” use of executive power destabilizes the regulatory environment, creating unpredictable barriers for businesses operating under federal jurisdiction.

THEME 2. DIVERGENT ENERGY AND CLIMATE POLICY

While federal efforts focus on broader regulatory restrictions, state-level initiatives like those in Maryland continue to funnel capital toward clean energy and electrification. These subsidies provide localized tailwinds for utility companies and green infrastructure developers. However, opposition figures frequently warn that heavy reliance on state-level mandates and subsidies creates fiscal inefficiencies and distortive market pricing that may not be sustainable without federal coordination.

THEME 3. AI INTEGRATION AND RESEARCH PROLIFERATION

Tech companies are aggressively pursuing broader distribution of AI models to solidify their influence within the academic and scientific communities. By providing free access, these firms attempt to embed their technology into the foundational research layer of the economy. Nevertheless, policymakers express increasing concern regarding the potential for “deception tools” and systemic fraud, suggesting that future legislative action may seek to curtail the unchecked deployment of agentic AI systems.

Policy Impact Heatmap with Market Direction

Each cell shows an estimated impact score on a fixed scale of -10 to +10, reflecting how today’s policy developments may affect each market sector. Positive scores (green, ▲) suggest bullish impact; negative scores (red, ▼) suggest bearish pressure. Rows and columns are sorted by impact strength, and sectors and policy events with no meaningful impact are omitted. The heatmap, the analysis below, and the Impact on Market themes above are produced from a single unified analysis: the heatmap visualizes the magnitudes, while the text explains the causal reasoning behind them.

Political scrutiny surrounding the Department of Homeland Security intensifies following internal disclosures characterizing a previous immigration raid as a “political stunt” rather than a law enforcement priority. This revelation increases institutional risk for federal agencies, potentially impacting regulatory stability. Simultaneously, the Senate confirmation of Walter Clayton as Director of National Intelligence signals a shift toward a more hawkish stance on national security, with direct implications for sensitive technology transfers and sector oversight.

In the private sector, OpenAI’s expansion of research access highlights the ongoing drive for rapid AI adoption despite mounting federal oversight. Concurrently, state-level policy in Maryland provides a divergence from federal trends by incentivizing clean energy and electric vehicle infrastructure. While these subsidies support the transition to green energy, critics often argue such state-level programs create fragmented regulatory environments that inflate long-term operational costs for utility providers. The combination of heightened administrative risk and localized fiscal intervention creates a complex outlook for sectors exposed to government contracts and state-funded mandates.

Republicans senators Susan Collins, Lisa Murkowski and Rand Paul voted in favor of the motion to prevent Trump from continuing hostilities against Iran

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The US economy expanded at a sluggish 1.5% pace from April through June as rising imports weighed on growth. But consumer spending rose. And the Federal Reserve’s favored measure of inflation grew more slowly last month despite remaining above the central bank’s 2% target.

The commerce department reported today that growth in US gross domestic product (GDP) – the nation’s output of goods and services – decelerated from 2.1% in the first three months of 2026 and came in below economists’ expectations.